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Criminal organizations operate in complex changing environments. Being flexible and dynamic allows criminal networks not only to exploit new illicit opportunities but also to react to law enforcement attempts at disruption, enhancing the persistence of these networks over time. Most studies investigating network disruption have examined organizational structures before and after the arrests of some actors but have disregarded groups’ adaptation strategies.
MADTOR simulates drug trafficking and dealing activities by organized criminal groups and their reactions to law enforcement attempts at disruption. The simulation relied on information retrieved from a detailed court order against a large-scale Italian drug trafficking organization (DTO) and from the literature.
The results showed that the higher the proportion of members arrested, the greater the challenges for DTOs, with higher rates of disrupted organizations and long-term consequences for surviving DTOs. Second, targeting members performing specific tasks had different impacts on DTO resilience: targeting traffickers resulted in the highest rates of DTO disruption, while targeting actors in charge of more redundant tasks (e.g., retailers) had smaller but significant impacts. Third, the model examined the resistance and resilience of DTOs adopting different strategies in the security/efficiency trade-off. Efficient DTOs were more resilient, outperforming secure DTOs in terms of reactions to a single, equal attempt at disruption. Conversely, secure DTOs were more resistant, displaying higher survival rates than efficient DTOs when considering the differentiated frequency and effectiveness of law enforcement interventions on DTOs having different focuses in the security/efficiency trade-off.
Overall, the model demonstrated that law enforcement interventions are often critical events for DTOs, with high rates of both first intention (i.e., DTOs directly disrupted by the intervention) and second intention (i.e., DTOs terminating their activities due to the unsustainability of the intervention’s short-term consequences) culminating in dismantlement. However, surviving DTOs always displayed a high level of resilience, with effective strategies in place to react to threatening events and to continue drug trafficking and dealing.
The agent-based simulation of innovation diffusion is based on the idea of the Bass model (1969).
The adoption of an agent is driven two parameters: its innovativess p and its prospensity to conform with others. The model is designed for a computational experiment building up on the following four model variations:
(i) the agent population it fully connected and all agents share the same parameter values for p and q
(ii) the agent population it fully connected and agents are heterogeneous, i.e. individual parameter values are drawn from a normal distribution
(iii) the agents population is embeded in a social network and all agents share the same parameter values for p and q
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An agent-based model of rule-governed (religious) communities in which networked agents observe one another’s conduct, sanction deviation,
and decide whether to remain. The model separates two structural conditions for durable capture. First, whether an enforcement apparatus
activates: agents punish deviation only where conduct is observable (the code-geometry parameter sigma) and where sanctioning is
institutionally rewarded (pi), a joint threshold in which neither condition alone suffices. Second, whether members’ exit is foreclosed: an
outside-option degradation (delta) that can be imposed exogenously or allowed to drift with enforcement activity. Punishment concentrates in
a small, endogenously recomputed enforcer cadre, but that concentration is produced by an institutional privilege bundle (a punishment
…
This model represnts an unique human-aquifer interactions model for the Li-extraction in Salar de Atacama, Chile. It describes the local actors’ experience of mining-induced changes in the socio-ecological system, especially on groundwater changes and social stressors. Social interactions are designed specifically according to a long-term local fieldwork by Babidge et al. (2019, 2020). The groundwater system builds on the FlowLogo model by Castilla-Rho et al. (2015), which was then parameterized and calibrated with local hydrogeological inputs in Salar de Atacama, Chile. The social system of the ABM is defined and customozied based on empirical studies to reflect three major stressors: drought stress, population stress, and mining stress. The model reports evolution of groundwater changes and associated social stress dynamics within the modeled time frame.
Meridian is a deterministic artificial world in which autonomous LLM scientist agents run
experiments on instruments, exchange letters, and maintain explicit probabilistic beliefs, while
a physical constant changes covertly mid-run. The true state is known only to the simulator, so
whether anyone notices becomes a measurement rather than an interpretation.
The platform separates three things that are usually confounded: what could have been known from
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This model extends Schelling’s segregation model with mobility sharing. Agents of two groups occupy cells of a 32 × 32 grid and repeatedly choose activity destinations subject to a preference threshold, the minimum share of ingroup neighbours they accept. Trips are matched into shared rides between members of different groups, using one of four matching algorithms on a shareability network (maximal cross-group matching, maximum weight matching on contact time, maximum cardinality matching, or random greedy matching) with a maximum detour constraint. After each trip, an agent’s preference threshold changes with the time spent in contact with outgroup members.
Starting from complete segregation, the model examines under which conditions contact during shared trips leads to integration. Besides the main scenario, in which contact always lowers the threshold, it includes two extensions. In the first, a share of adversarial agents becomes less tolerant with contact, and this share grows or shrinks with the current level of segregation, governed by a branching dissimilarity index and a conversion rate. In the second, each contact raises or lowers the threshold with a probability that depends on the agent’s current attitude relative to a compatibility threshold.
Segregation is measured with the index of dissimilarity and the Gini coefficient. The model file includes BehaviorSpace experiments for each analysis in the associated article. The matching step uses the NetworkX library through the Python extension of NetLogo (requires Python 3 with numpy and networkx 3.x).
Our aim is to demonstrate how conversational AI systems, exemplified by ChatGPT, can support the conceptualisation of Agent-Based Social Simulation (ABSS) models, leading to a full ABSS model design document. Through advanced prompt engineering and adherence to the Engineering ABSS framework (Siebers and Klügl 2017), we have constructed a comprehensive script that is easy to use and that supports the design of ABSS models with or even by AI. The performance of the script is demonstrated through an illustrative case study related to the use of adaptive architecture in museums. The repository contains (1) the comprehensive script in a format that allows copying and pasting prompts for use with ChatGPT, (2) the results of the illustrative case study in the form of two conceptual ABSS models, the ground truth and the autogenerated version.
In this model, the spread of a virus disease in a network consisting of school pupils, employed, and umemployed people is simulated. The special feature in this model is the distinction between different types of links: family-, friends-, school-, or work-links. In this way, different governmental measures can be implemented in order to decelerate or stop the transmission.
The Communication-Based Model of Perceived Descriptive Norm Dynamics in Digital Networks (COMM-PDND) is an agent-based model specifically created to examine the dynamics of perceived descriptive norms in the context of digital network structures. The model, developed as part of a master’s thesis titled “The Dynamics of Perceived Descriptive Norms in Digital Network Publics: An Agent-Based Simulation,” emphasizes the critical role of communication processes in norm formation. It focuses on the role of communicative interactions in shaping perceived descriptive norms.
The COMM-PDND is tuned to explore the effects of normative deviance in digital social networks. It provides functionalities for manipulating agents according to their network position, and has a versatile set of customizable parameters, making it adaptable to a wide range of research contexts.
This model was designed to study resilience in organizations. Inspired by ethnographic work, it follows the simple goal to understand whether team structure affects the way in which tasks are performed. In so doing, it compares the ‘hybrid’ data-inspired structure with three more traditional structures (i.e. hierarchy, flexible/relaxed hierarchy, and anarchy/disorganization).
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