Computational Model Library

Displaying 8 of 18 results for "pandemic" clear search

St Anthony flu

Lisa Sattenspiel | Published Monday, April 15, 2019

The St Anthony flu model is an epidemiological model designed to test hypotheses related to the spread of the 1918 influenza pandemic among residents of a small fishing community in Newfoundland and Labrador. The 1921 census data from Newfoundland and Labrador are used to ensure a realistic model population; the community of St. Anthony, NL, located on the tip of the Northern Peninsula of the island of Newfoundland is the specific population modeled. Model agents are placed on a map-like grid that consists of houses, two churches, a school, an orphanage, a hospital, and several boats. They engage in daily activities that reflect known ethnographic patterns of behavior in St. Anthony and other similar communities. A pathogen is introduced into the community and then it spreads throughout the population as a consequence of individual agent movements and interactions.

Holmestrand School Model

Jessica Dimka | Published Friday, June 18, 2021 | Last modified Friday, April 29, 2022

The Holmestrand model is an epidemiological agent-based model. Its aim is to test hypotheses related to how the social and physical environment of a residential school for children with disabilities might influence the spread of an infectious disease epidemic among students and staff. Annual reports for the Holmestrand School for the Deaf (Norway) are the primary sources of inspiration for the modeled school, with additional insights drawn from other archival records for schools for children with disabilities in early 20th century Norway and data sources for the 1918 influenza pandemic. The model environment consists of a simplified boarding school that includes residential spaces for students and staff, classrooms, a dining room, common room, and an outdoor area. Students and staff engage in activities reflecting hourly schedules suggested by school reports. By default, a random staff member is selected as the first case and is infected with disease. Subsequent transmission is determined by agent movement and interactions between susceptible and infectious pairs.

CINCH1 (Covid-19 INfection Control in Hospitals), is a prototype model of physical distancing for infection control among staff in University College London Hospital during the Covid-19 pandemic, developed at the University of Leeds, School of Geography. It models the movement of collections of agents in simple spaces under conflicting motivations of reaching their destination, maintaining physical distance from each other, and walking together with a companion. The model incorporates aspects of the Capability, Opportunity and Motivation of Behaviour (COM-B) Behaviour Change Framework developed at University College London Centre for Behaviour Change, and is aimed at informing decisions about behavioural interventions in hospital and other workplace settings during this and possible future outbreaks of highly contagious diseases. CINCH1 was developed as part of the SAFER (SARS-CoV-2 Acquisition in Frontline Health Care Workers – Evaluation to Inform Response) project
(https://www.ucl.ac.uk/behaviour-change/research/safer-sars-cov-2-acquisition-frontline-health-care-workers-evaluation-inform-response), funded by the UK Medical Research Council. It is written in Python 3.8, and built upon Mesa version 0.8.7 (copyright 2020 Project Mesa Team).

Peer reviewed Virus Transmission with Super-spreaders

J M Applegate | Published Saturday, September 11, 2021

A curious aspect of the Covid-19 pandemic is the clustering of outbreaks. Evidence suggests that 80\% of people who contract the virus are infected by only 19% of infected individuals, and that the majority of infected individuals faile to infect another person. Thus, the dispersion of a contagion, $k$, may be of more use in understanding the spread of Covid-19 than the reproduction number, R0.

The Virus Transmission with Super-spreaders model, written in NetLogo, is an adaptation of the canonical Virus Transmission on a Network model and allows the exploration of various mitigation protocols such as testing and quarantines with both homogenous transmission and heterogenous transmission.

The model consists of a population of individuals arranged in a network, where both population and network degree are tunable. At the start of the simulation, a subset of the population is initially infected. As the model runs, infected individuals will infect neighboring susceptible individuals according to either homogenous or heterogenous transmission, where heterogenous transmission models super-spreaders. In this case, k is described as the percentage of super-spreaders in the population and the differing transmission rates for super-spreaders and non super-spreaders. Infected individuals either recover, at which point they become resistant to infection, or die. Testing regimes cause discovered infected individuals to quarantine for a period of time.

Violence against women occurs predominantly in the family and domestic context. The COVID-19 pandemic led Brazil to recommend and, at times, impose social distancing, with the partial closure of economic activities, schools, and restrictions on events and public services. Preliminary evidence shows that intense co- existence increases domestic violence, while social distancing measures may have prevented access to public services and networks, information, and help. We propose an agent-based model (ABM), called VIDA, to illustrate and examine multi-causal factors that influence events that generate violence. A central part of the model is the multi-causal stress indicator, created as a probability trigger of domestic violence occurring within the family environment. Two experimental design tests were performed: (a) absence or presence of the deterrence system of domestic violence against women and measures to increase social distancing. VIDA presents comparative results for metropolitan regions and neighbourhoods considered in the experiments. Results suggest that social distancing measures, particularly those encouraging staying at home, may have increased domestic violence against women by about 10%. VIDA suggests further that more populated areas have comparatively fewer cases per hundred thousand women than less populous capitals or rural areas of urban concentrations. This paper contributes to the literature by formalising, to the best of our knowledge, the first model of domestic violence through agent-based modelling, using empirical detailed socioeconomic, demographic, educational, gender, and race data at the intraurban level (census sectors).

MiniDemographicABM.jl: A simplified agent-based demographic model of the UK

Atiyah Elsheikh | Published Friday, July 28, 2023 | Last modified Tuesday, December 12, 2023

This package implements a simplified artificial agent-based demographic model of the UK. Individuals of an initial population are subject to ageing, deaths, births, divorces and marriages. A specific case-study simulation is progressed with a user-defined simulation fixed step size on a hourly, daily, weekly, monthly basis or even an arbitrary user-defined clock rate. While the model can serve as a base model to be adjusted to realistic large-scale socio-economics, pandemics or social interactions-based studies mainly within a demographic context, the main purpose of the model is to explore and exploit capabilities of the state-of-the-art Agents.jl Julia package as well as other ecosystem of Julia packages like GlobalSensitivity.jl. Code includes examples for evaluating global sensitivity analysis using Morris and Sobol methods and local sensitivity analysis using OFAT and OAT methods. Multi-threaded parallelization is enabled for improved runtime performance.

Peer reviewed DogFoxCDVspillover

Aniruddha Belsare Matthew Gompper | Published Thursday, March 16, 2017 | Last modified Tuesday, April 04, 2017

The purpose of this model is to better understand the dynamics of a multihost pathogen in two host system comprising of high densities of domestic hosts and sympatric wildlife hosts susceptible to the pathogen.

The Netlogo model is a conceptualization of the Moria refugee camp, capturing the household demographics of refugees in the camp, a theoretical friendship network based on values, and an abstraction of their daily activities. The model then simulates how Covid-19 could spread through the camp if one refugee is exposed to the virus, utilizing transmission probabilities and the stages of disease progression of Covid-19 from susceptible to exposed to asymptomatic / symptomatic to mild / severe to recovered from literature. The model also incorporates various interventions - PPE, lockdown, isolation of symptomatic refugees - to analyze how they could mitigate the spread of the virus through the camp.

Displaying 8 of 18 results for "pandemic" clear search

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