ABM of financial markets, focused on systemic risk.
Agent based modelling in water management, especially focused in extreme phenomena such floods and droughts.
Raquel Guimaraes is a Postdoctoral Research Scholar at IIASA with support from the Brazilian Coordination for the Improvement of Higher Education Personnel (CAPES). She is hosted by the Advanced Systems Analysis (ASA), Risk and Vulnerability (RISK), and World Population (POP) programs. Dr. Guimaraes is currently on sabbatical leave from her appointment as an Adjunct Professor in the Economics Department at the Federal University of Paraná (Brazil), where she carries out research on, as well as teaching, economic demography, development microeconomics and applied microeconometrics.
In her research at IIASA, Dr. Guimaraes aims to contribute to the extant literature and to policy-making by offering a case study from Brazil, examining whether and how individual exposure to floods did or not induce affected migration in a setting with intense urbanization, the city of Governador Valadares, in the State of Minas Gerais. To elucidate the role of vulnerability at the household-level in mediating the relationship between mobility and floods, she will rely on causal models and simulation analysis. Her study is aligned with and will have support from, the Brazilian Network for Research on Global Climate Change (Rede Clima), which is an important pillar in support of R&D activities of the Brazilian National Climate Change Plan.
Dr. Guimaraes graduated from the Federal University of Minas Gerais, Brazil, in 2007 with degrees in economics. She completed an MA degree in International Comparative Education at Stanford University (2011) and earned a doctorate in demography from the Federal University of Minas Gerais in 2014.
I am a spatial (GIS) agent-based modeler i.e. modeler that simulates the impact of various individual decisions on the environment. My work is mainly methodological i.e. I develop tools that make agent-based modeling (ABM) easier to do. I especially focus on developing tools that allow for evaluating various uncertainties in ABM. One of these uncertainties are the ways of quantifying agent decisions (i.e. the algorithmic representation of agent decision rules) for example to address the question of “How do the agents decide whether to grow crops or rather put land to fallow?”. One of the methods I developed focuses on representing residential developers’ risk perception for example to answer the question: “to what extent is the developer risk-taking and would be willing to build new houses targeted at high-income families (small market but big return on investment)?”. Other ABM uncertainties that I evaluate are various spatial inputs (e.g. different representations of soil erosion, different maps of environmental benefits from land conservation) and various demographics (i.e. are retired farmers more willing to put land to conservation?). The tools I develop are mostly used in (spatial) sensitivity analysis of ABM (quantitative, qualitative, and visual).
Dr. Roger Cremades is a complex systems scientist and heterodox global change economist integrating human-Earth interactions across systems and scales into modular quantitative tools, e.g. connecting drought risks in cities with land use at the river basin scale. He is co-Chair of the Development Team of the Finance and Economics Knowledge-Action Network of Future Earth (2020-2022), the largest global research programme in global change. Roger coordinated research and co-production projects above €1M, and published in top journal like PNAS, Nature Climate Change, and Nature Geoscience.
Global change, human-Earth interactions, complex systems.
Elizabeth Hunter received a BA in Mathematics and Economics at Boston University in 2011. She worked as a health economics researcher at Research Triangle Institute for three years where she worked on a team that developed the risk adjustment models for the US health insurance exchanges. She attended the University of Limerick and received an MSc in Mathematical Modelling in 2015. She completed a PhD at Technological University Dublin. Her PhD research focuses on agent-based simulations for infectious disease epidemiology with the goal of creating an agent-based simulation of Ireland. Elizabeth is currently working on the Precise4Q as a Postdoctoral researcher working on predictive modelling in stroke.
Ifigeneia Koutiva (female) is a senior environmental engineer, holding a PhD in Civil Engineering (NTUA), a Postgrad Diploma in Water Resources and Environmental Management (Un. of Belgrade - e-learning), an MSc in Environmental Technology (Imperial College London) and an MSc in Mining and Metallurgy Engineering (NTUA). Her PhD was funded by the Greek Ministry of Education through Heracleitous II scholarship. She is currently a postdoctoral scholar of the State Scholarship Foundation (IKY) for 2020 - 2021. She has 10 years of experience in various EU funded research projects, both as a researcher and as a project manager, in the fields of socio-technical simulation, urban water modelling, modelling and assessment of alternative water technologies, artificial intelligence, social quantitative research, KPI and water indicators development and assessment and analysis of large data sets. She is very competent with programming for creating ICT tools for agent based modelling and data analysis tools and she is an experienced user of spatial analysis software and tools. She is also actively involved in the design and implementation of numerous consultation workshops and conferences. She has authored more than 20 scientific journal articles, conferences articles and research reports.
My research interests lay within the interface of social, water and modelling sciences. I have created tools that explore the effects of water demand management policies in domestic urban water demand behaviour and the effects of civil decision making in flood risk management. I am interested in agent based modelling, artificial intelligence techniques, the creation of ABM tools for civil society, Circular Economy, distributed water technologies and overall urban water management.
I am currently head of the Junior Research Group POLISES which uses agent-based models to study intended and unintended effects of global policy instruments on the social-ecological resilience of smallholders. In this project, we focus on the impact of policies targeting climate risk in two common property regimes of pastoralists in Africa (Morocco and Kenya/Ethiopia).
On a conceptual level, I work in an international team of modellers, psychologists and natural scientists on adequate representations of human behaviour in agent-based models. Furthermore, I am interested in how to describe models in an appropriate and standardised manner to increase their comprehensibility and comparison.
Senior (Tenure-Track) Assistant Professor in Work and Organizational Psychology (WOP) at the Human Sciences Department of Verona University. My expertise lies in organizational behavior, individual differences and decision-making at work, and social dynamics in the applied psychology field. In the field of fundamental research my studies explore the role of individual antecedents (e.g., Personality traits, Risk attitudes, etc.) in relation to classic I/O models (e.g., Job Demands-Resources model, Effort-Reward model, etc.). My applied research focuses on the development of interventions and policies for enhancing decision-making, and in turn well-being and job performance. Finally, in industrial research, my research aims to better integrate cognitive and behavioral theories (e.g., Theory of Planned Behavior, Prospect theory, etc.) for designing predictive models – based on agents – of social and organizational behaviors.