Green Consumption ABM – Version 2.0.0

This release presents an updated agent-based modelling (ABM) framework developed to investigate social tipping dynamics in green consumption markets.

The model integrates heterogeneous consumer preferences, social influence, firm-level economic decision-making, endogenous pricing, and environmental policy interventions to examine how individual behavioural responses can generate collective market transitions.

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The model represents a large, traditional firm competing with small, sustainable food producers. The large firm operates under conventional assumptions, pursuing monopoly profits maximized through standard economic principles. Its behavior is driven by economies of scale, which compel small firms to strategically differentiate themselves to deliver added value to consumers. Consequently, small firms focus on offering higher-quality products—a factor that matters significantly to consumers.

The gains achieved by small firms represent social profits that hinge upon establishing co-participation schemes with farmers and building trustworthy relationships with consumers. Cooperation with farmers directly shapes production processes and product quality. Because a firm trusted by one consumer becomes visible to neighbors, trust can diffuse and evolve into a collective identity. Ultimately, population-level legitimation occurs when the organizational form of the organic food producer gains widespread acceptance within the consumer community.

The model’s behavior depends on three key factors: a trust parameter, a legitimation intensity parameter, and an aspiration-level weight (for the large firm).

HOSS(-5) is an exploratory agent-based prototype of a small artificial society, written in Python. Each agent is a “ph” (punto humano, “human point”) that is born, is educated, works, consumes and dies. Its yearly decisions depend on a psychological profile (archetype × character), its economic status and its intentionality. Agents interact indirectly through families, firms in 10 sectors, a labour market with about 200 job categories, and a State that provides public services, employment and a Universal Basic Income, adjusting taxes and UBI each year to seek fiscal balance.

The model simulates a few thousand agents over decades of virtual time and records yearly aggregates (population, GDP, income, Gini index, HDI). A separate analysis script explores the results and fits Gamma distributions to individual incomes, comparing the shape parameter with Gini and HDI.

HOSS does not aim to predict real societies or claim empirical validation. It is a sandbox for comparing scenarios and thinking about the organizational design of society from an engineering perspective. Known limitations: no direct social relations between agents, prices and production follow simple rules rather than supply-demand dynamics, and organizations are black boxes.

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GFN & Technology Models Library (2025–2035) is a collection of four interrelated computational models focused on global financial networks, cascading default risks, technological development, and technological lag, with particular attention to Russia, the USA, and China. The library combines agent-based modeling, system dynamics, Monte-Carlo simulation, and network analysis. It includes: (1) a Numba-accelerated Monte-Carlo technology index model; (2) a hybrid GFN + cascading defaults (Gai–Kapadia) + Russian system dynamics model; (3) a twin-simulation GFN+SBS framework with selective bailout and Russia’s peripheral position; and (4) an endogenous GFN model with technology centrality, dependence, and tech lag dynamics under sanctions scenarios. GFN & Technology Models Library (2025–2035) is a collection of four interrelated computational models focused on global financial networks, cascading default risks, technological development, and technological lag, with particular attention to Russia, the USA, and China.

The library combines agent-based modeling, system dynamics, Monte-Carlo simulation, and network analysis. It includes:

1. Technology Index 2035 (Monte-Carlo + Numba) — hybrid SD/ABM model projecting a composite technology index under different scenarios (Russia baseline, China, USA) with aggressive Numba optimization.
2. RUS-GFN-TSI-2035 CASCADE — hybrid model integrating a Gai–Kapadia-style cascading defaults network, an agent-based Global Financial Network layer, and a system-dynamics module for the Russian economy (TSI, inflation, technology, trust, etc.).
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The model simulates the evolution of the labor market in the context of the PNRR (National Recovery and Resilience Plan). It tracks how two types of agents (angajati and neangajati) develop their professional competencies to match the requirements of seven distinct job categories.
The simulation focuses on the gap between current skill levels and market demands, specifically modeling how a sudden “Market Shift” (the introduction of a 13th competency) impacts the workforce’s readiness.

HousingABM_Japan is a NetLogo agent-based model of the residential market of Tokyo’s 23 wards. It evaluates whether a single parameter configuration can jointly reproduce key features of prices, rents, yields, and market turnover across distinct market regimes from 2001 to 2025, with particular attention to demand- and supply-side trend-following during the 2021–2025 price surge.

The model builds on the Bank of England housing-market lineage (Baptista et al. 2016; Carro et al. 2023) and introduces four extensions: (1) dynamic linkages between the sale and rental markets through vacancy, rents, and yields; (2) heterogeneous demand-side trend-following; (3) supply-side trend-following through construction-cost trend anchoring and a momentum-dependent dynamic premium; and (4) housing-equity borrowing that converts unrealized equity into additional borrowing capacity.

Twenty parameters are calibrated using 2001–2015 data and held fixed for post-calibration evaluation over 2016–2020 and 2021–2025, while annual exogenous inputs follow observed historical paths. The model reproduces the shift from moderate price growth to the 2021–2025 surge, as well as rent acceleration, surge-period yield compression, and persistently low market turnover, although it understates the intermediate acceleration of 2016–2020.

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Why do career outcomes in organizations follow highly skewed distributions when the individual traits presumed to drive success — competence, effort, and social skill — are approximately normally distributed in the population? This agent-based model investigates the relative contributions of individual attributes versus random events (“luck”) to career outcomes in hierarchically structured organizations.

The model places 500 agents in a five-level pyramid-shaped organization over 80 six-month evaluation periods (40 simulated years). Each agent is characterized by four attributes drawn from normal distributions at initialization: competence, effort, social skill, and adaptability. In each period, agents may encounter stochastic career events (good or bad projects, supportive or poor managers, market booms or busts), which modify their performance and visibility scores. Promotion decisions are made competitively when vacancies arise at higher levels, using a weighted combination of recent performance, accumulated visibility, network position, and tenure. Social connections form and decay through a proximity-based model influenced by agents’ social skills.

The model extends the talent-versus-luck framework of Pluchino et al. (2018) in four substantive directions: (1) it embeds agents in a hierarchical organization with finite positions at each level, making promotion a zero-sum competition rather than an abstract encounter with random events; (2) it represents individual differences along four independent attribute dimensions rather than a single talent score; (3) it incorporates dynamic social network formation that mediates access to career-relevant opportunities; and (4) it implements the Peter Principle mechanism through which promoted agents must acquire competence appropriate to their new role.

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This model tests whether local housing supply elasticity governs crash severity inside a single metropolitan housing market. Saiz (2010) established that across US metros, regions constrained by geography and regulation experience deeper boom-bust cycles than flexible ones. That finding is routinely applied downward to neighborhoods and ZIP codes as though the mechanism scaled without qualification.

The empirical record for the Washington DC and Northern Virginia region says it does not. Across 84 ZIP codes, measured supply elasticity ranges from 0.35 to 4.95 with a median of 1.21. The worst single-year price decline between 2007 and 2012 averaged 9.6 percent in constrained ZIP codes and 9.0 percent in flexible ones, a gap that cannot be distinguished from noise. Wide variation in the proposed cause, no meaningful separation in the proposed effect.

The model embeds households, houses and a metro-wide credit condition in the real ZIP geography of the region using three GIS layers and an empirical price panel. Local elasticity governs construction, exactly as theory predicts. Prices are driven by a shared macro drift schedule and, under the credit-amplified mode, by a leverage cycle with a financial accelerator and a deviation penalty. The design question is whether those shared forces are sufficient to override local supply differences at the sub-metropolitan scale.

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MOSAIC is an agent-based NetLogo model of decentralized mission coordination among heterogeneous robots operating under partial observability, limited energy, spatially variable risk, dynamic communication, and individual and cooperative task requirements. Robots discover tasks locally, exchange task information through temporary communication links, submit capability-, energy-, deadline-, and risk-aware bids, compete for individual contracts, and form temporary coalitions for cooperative tasks.

The model integrates decentralized auctions, greedy capability-based coalition formation, contract release and reassignment, four reward regimes, reputation, adaptive bidding strategies, failure traceability, and mission-, network-, information-, inequality-, and coalition-level metrics. It operates without a centralized mission planner or global combinatorial assignment solver.

Seven paired-seed BehaviorSpace experiments comprising 690 official simulation runs evaluate baseline mission viability, reward regimes, communication structure, capability heterogeneity, cooperative-task demand, reputation and adaptive strategies, and mission-incentive strength. The results indicate that structural coordination capacity—particularly information reach, capability compatibility, and feasible coalition construction—has a stronger effect on mission completion than increasing incentive intensity within the tested architecture and parameter ranges.

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This computational model is an agent-based model (ABM) developed to investigate how repeated failures of emerging niches accumulate and influence the trajectory of socio-technical transitions. Built in AnyLogic 8.7.11, the model simulates the dynamic interactions between a dominant regime and sequential niche entrants within a two-dimensional practice space. It models alignment, movement, and competition based on technological maturity and market penetration. The model utilizes a reinforcing feedback structure linking consumer support, output, resource accumulation, and capacity development (Physical and Institutional Capacity). A complete model specification following the ODD+D (Overview, Design concepts, Details, and Decision) protocol is included in the documentation.