GFN & Technology Models Library (2025–2035) is a collection of four interrelated computational models focused on global financial networks, cascading default risks, technological development, and technological lag, with particular attention to Russia, the USA, and China. The library combines agent-based modeling, system dynamics, Monte-Carlo simulation, and network analysis. It includes: (1) a Numba-accelerated Monte-Carlo technology index model; (2) a hybrid GFN + cascading defaults (Gai–Kapadia) + Russian system dynamics model; (3) a twin-simulation GFN+SBS framework with selective bailout and Russia’s peripheral position; and (4) an endogenous GFN model with technology centrality, dependence, and tech lag dynamics under sanctions scenarios. GFN & Technology Models Library (2025–2035) is a collection of four interrelated computational models focused on global financial networks, cascading default risks, technological development, and technological lag, with particular attention to Russia, the USA, and China.

The library combines agent-based modeling, system dynamics, Monte-Carlo simulation, and network analysis. It includes:

1. Technology Index 2035 (Monte-Carlo + Numba) — hybrid SD/ABM model projecting a composite technology index under different scenarios (Russia baseline, China, USA) with aggressive Numba optimization.
2. RUS-GFN-TSI-2035 CASCADE — hybrid model integrating a Gai–Kapadia-style cascading defaults network, an agent-based Global Financial Network layer, and a system-dynamics module for the Russian economy (TSI, inflation, technology, trust, etc.).
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This model implements a bidirectional coupling between micro-level agent decisions and macro-level system dynamics, with an additional diagnostic layer based on Stafford Beer’s Viable System Model.

Key features:
- Six types of agents (Household, Firm, Bank, Government, Foreign, Innovation)
- Continuous SDM core integrated with Runge-Kutta 4
- Robust GDELT data handling with multi-level fallback
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SERDUX-MARCIM simulates the propagation of a cyberattack over the computational network of an organization in the maritime sector, at the strategic level of decision-making. It is the instantiation of ABM-MARCIM, the agent-based model of the MARCIM framework for the modeling and simulation of maritime cyberdefense.

Every computational asset of the target organization – servers, endpoints, routers, gateways, vessel systems, radars – is an agent that occupies one of six states at each time step: Susceptible, Exposed, Resistant, Degraded, Unavailable or Destroyed, the initials of which give the model its name. The states Degraded, Unavailable and Destroyed are associated with the D5 cyberattack effects (disrupt, degrade, deny, destroy, deceive) as a function of the degree and the duration of the attack. Thirteen transitions between states are admissible.

Unlike a conventional agent-based model, the local update function is not an individual behavioral rule. It is a system of six ordinary differential equations with eight time-dependent transition rates – propagation, cyberattack (degraded), cyberattack (unavailable), cyberattack (destroyed), recovery, sanitation, loss of resistance, and unavailability by other causes. The values of those rates derive from the capabilities of the target organization, the capabilities of the attacker, and the degree and duration of the cyberattack, computed through a cyber risk approach aligned with the OWASP Risk Rating Methodology, the ISACA categorization of security controls and the IMO Guidelines on Maritime Cyber Risk Management.

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NearshoreABM simulates whether a region captures the production linkages that nearshoring makes available, or fails to capture them because physical infrastructure and credit supply bind first.

The model runs over the 32 Mexican states at quarterly frequency. Multinational anchor firms decide whether to enter and where to locate, following Melitz selection on heterogeneous productivity under trade-policy uncertainty. Domestic supplier firms decide whether to formalise and whether to invest in quality, and may or may not obtain a contract with an anchor. A banking sector allocates a finite regional credit supply according to observed default risk, serving anchor firms before suppliers.

Electricity and water capacity enter production as non-linear congestion penalties with an engineering-based threshold, so the response of output to demand growth is discontinuous rather than proportional: below the threshold there is no penalty at all, between threshold and capacity the penalty grows quadratically, and above capacity it decays exponentially. Congestion is rivalrous within the quarter, which makes the order of production economically meaningful rather than incidental.

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This model tests whether local housing supply elasticity governs crash severity inside a single metropolitan housing market. Saiz (2010) established that across US metros, regions constrained by geography and regulation experience deeper boom-bust cycles than flexible ones. That finding is routinely applied downward to neighborhoods and ZIP codes as though the mechanism scaled without qualification.

The empirical record for the Washington DC and Northern Virginia region says it does not. Across 84 ZIP codes, measured supply elasticity ranges from 0.35 to 4.95 with a median of 1.21. The worst single-year price decline between 2007 and 2012 averaged 9.6 percent in constrained ZIP codes and 9.0 percent in flexible ones, a gap that cannot be distinguished from noise. Wide variation in the proposed cause, no meaningful separation in the proposed effect.

The model embeds households, houses and a metro-wide credit condition in the real ZIP geography of the region using three GIS layers and an empirical price panel. Local elasticity governs construction, exactly as theory predicts. Prices are driven by a shared macro drift schedule and, under the credit-amplified mode, by a leverage cycle with a financial accelerator and a deviation penalty. The design question is whether those shared forces are sufficient to override local supply differences at the sub-metropolitan scale.

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MOSAIC is an agent-based NetLogo model of decentralized mission coordination among heterogeneous robots operating under partial observability, limited energy, spatially variable risk, dynamic communication, and individual and cooperative task requirements. Robots discover tasks locally, exchange task information through temporary communication links, submit capability-, energy-, deadline-, and risk-aware bids, compete for individual contracts, and form temporary coalitions for cooperative tasks.

The model integrates decentralized auctions, greedy capability-based coalition formation, contract release and reassignment, four reward regimes, reputation, adaptive bidding strategies, failure traceability, and mission-, network-, information-, inequality-, and coalition-level metrics. It operates without a centralized mission planner or global combinatorial assignment solver.

Seven paired-seed BehaviorSpace experiments comprising 690 official simulation runs evaluate baseline mission viability, reward regimes, communication structure, capability heterogeneity, cooperative-task demand, reputation and adaptive strategies, and mission-incentive strength. The results indicate that structural coordination capacity—particularly information reach, capability compatibility, and feasible coalition construction—has a stronger effect on mission completion than increasing incentive intensity within the tested architecture and parameter ranges.

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An integrated wildfire and urban growth model for informal settlements.

Fire-WCISG is developed to test the impact of different fire management strategies on the number and type of residents staying in an informal settlement, and the fire-dependent fynbos vegetation that it is next to.

The model uses a hybrid protection motivation theory, place attachment and Turner’s informal residents as described by Christ et al. (2023) (10.1016/j.habitatint.2023.102815), for the agents decision making. Wildland vegetation is based on published understanding of fynbos ecology.

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This model is an extension of Wilensky’s (2003) Traffic Grid, a foundational NetLogo model of urban traffic flow. It embeds a dual-process cognitive architecture into each driver agent, transforming the original’s identical reactive units into cognitively heterogeneous individuals whose internal mental state evolves with experience; making the same intersection produce different decisions from different drivers, and different decisions from the same driver across occasions.
The core question the model addresses is the yellow-light dilemma zone: the seconds following amber onset in which a driver can neither stop safely nor clear the intersection before red. Field research documents that behavioral variance at this moment cannot be explained by geometry or legal obligation alone. This model provides the cognitive architecture that has been missing from traffic ABMs.
Each driver routes every amber-onset decision through either System 1 (fast, heuristic, automatic) or System 2 (slow, deliberative, prospect-theoretic), switching dynamically based on cognitive load, accumulated near-miss memory, and situational framing. The result is crash outcomes that are attributable, path-dependent, and sensitive to both driver disposition and signal infrastructure; none of which fixed-rule models can reproduce. Three signal control modes are included: fixed-cycle (replicating Wilensky’s original), adaptive-queue, and smart occupancy-based switching.

This model is an agent-based simulation designed to explore how climate-induced environmental degradation can contribute to the emergence of social violence in coastal communities that depend heavily on ecosystem services for their livelihoods. The model represents a coupled social–ecological system in which environmental shocks—such as sea level rise and marine ecosystem decline—affect local economic conditions, food security, and community stability.

Agents in the model represent individuals whose livelihoods depend on coastal ecosystems. Environmental degradation reduces ecosystem productivity and increases economic hardship, which can lead to the formation of grievances among agents. The model incorporates behavioral thresholds that determine how individuals respond to hardship and perceived injustice. Under certain conditions—particularly when institutional capacity and law enforcement effectiveness are limited—these grievances may escalate into violent behavior.

The simulation allows users to explore how different climate scenarios, levels of ecosystem degradation, livelihood dependence, and institutional responses influence the probability of social instability and violence. By modeling the interactions between environmental stress, socio-economic vulnerability, and governance capacity, the model provides a computational framework for examining potential pathways linking climate change and conflict in coastal social–ecological systems.

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NOMAD is an agent-based model of firm location choice between two aggregate regions (“near” and “off”) under logistics uncertainty. Firms occupy sites characterised by attractiveness and logistics risk, earn a risk-adjusted payoff that depends on regional costs (wages plus congestion) and an individual risk-tolerance trait, and update location choices using aspiration-based satisficing rules with switching frictions. Logistics risk evolves endogenously on occupied sites through a region-specific absorption mechanism (good/bad events that reduce/increase risk), while congestion feeds back into regional costs via regional shares and local crowding. Runs stop endogenously once the near-region share becomes quasi-stable after burn-in, and the model records time series and quasi-stable outcomes such as near/off composition, switching intensity, costs, average risk, and average risk tolerance.