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Postdoctoral researcher at Institute of Economics, Polish Academy of Sciences and in Macroprudential Research Division at National Bank of Poland. She graduated in Mathematics (Jagiellonian University, Poland) and in Economics (University of Alcala, Spain). In 2017 she obtained Fulbright Advanced Research Award. In the United States, she carried out research on systemic risk and complex systems. Her doctoral dissertation was about the measurement and modeling of systemic risk using simulation methods and complex systems approach (the results to be published by Palgrave Macmillan US). Previously, she gained experience on agent-based modeling while working with Juan Luis Santos on the European Commission FP 7 MOSIPS project (http://www.mosips.eu/).
Mathematics, complex systems, financial modeling, agent-based modeling, econometrics, macroprudential policies, systemic risk, cental banking
My research focuses pn the intersection between game theory, social networks, and multi-agent simulations. The objectives of this scientific endeavor are to inform policy makers, generate new technological applications, and bring new insight into human and non-human social behavior. My research focus is on the transformation of cultural conventions, such as signaling and lexical forms, and on many cell models models of stem cell derived clonal colony.
Because the models I analyze are formally defined using game theory and network theory, I am able to approach them with different methods that range from stochastic process analysis to multi-agent simulations.
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He is an experienced Lecturer with a demonstrated history of working in the education management industry. He was skilled in Agent-based Modeling and Simulation, Competency Assessing and Fundamental Supply Chain Management. Strong research background and analyst with a Master’s degree focused in Logistics and Supply Chain Management from Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember Surabaya and Certified Supply Chain Analyst from ISCEA International.
My research focused on pricing strategy and its impact on Supply Chain (SC) using the Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation (ABMS) approach. Currently, I’m working on an ABMS model to analyze the impact of SC Coordination on SC performance when intelligent retailers may offer price discounts based on the market’s states using Q-learning algorithm.
I am a modeler scientist at CIRAD. As member of the Green Research Unit, I contribute to promote the Companion Modeling approach (http://www.commod.org). Through the development of CORMAS, a Framework for Agent-Based Models (http://cormas.cirad.fr), I have been focusing on the development and the use of multi-agent simulations for renewable resource management issues. I have been based several years in Brazil, at the University of Brasilia and at the PUC-Rio University, until 2014. I developed models related to environmental management, such as breeding adaptation to drought in the Uruguay or as breeding and deforestation in the Amazon. I am currently based in Costa Rica, firstly at the University of Costa Rica working on adaptation of agriculture and livestock to Climate Changes, and now at CATIE, working on coffe rust.
Participatory modeling, including collective design of model and interactive simulation
My research uses modeling to understand complex coupled human and natural systems, and can be generally described as computational social science. I am especially interested in modeling water management systems, in both archaeological and contemporary contexts. I have previously developed a framework for modeling general archaeological complex systems, and applied this to the specific case of the Hohokam in southern Arizona. I am currently engaged in research in data mining to understand contemporary water management strategies in the U.S. southwest and in several locations in Alaska. I am also a developer for the Repast HPC toolkit, an agent-based modeling toolkit specifically for high-performance computing platforms, and maintain an interest in the philosophy of science underlying our use of models as a means to approach complex systems. I am currently serving as Communications Officer for the Computational Social Science Society of the Americas.
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In this paper, we explore the dynamic of stock prices over time by developing an agent-based market. The developed artificial market comprises of heterogeneous agents occupied with various behaviors and trading strategies. To be specific, the agents in the market may expose to overconfidence, conservatism or loss aversion biases. Additionally, they may employ fundamental, technical, adaptive (neural network) strategies or simply being arbitrary agents (zero intelligence agents). The market has property of direct interaction. The environment takes the form of network structure, namely, it takes the manifestation of scale-free network. The information will flow between the agents through the linkages that connect them. Furthermore, the tax imposed by the regulator is investigated. The model is subjected to goodness of fit to the empirical observations of the S\&P500. The fitting of the model is refined by calibrating the model parameters through heuristic approach, particularly, scatter search. Conclusively, the parameters are validated against normality, absence of correlations, volatility cluster and leverage effect using statistical tests.
I received my BSc, MSc, and PhD from the University of Nottingham. My PhD focuses on the Agent-Based Modelling and Simulation (ABMS) of Public Goods Game (PGG) in Economics. In my thesis, a development framework was developed using software-engineering methods to provide a structured approach to the development process of agent-based social simulations. Also as a case study, the framework was used to design and implement a simulation of PGG in the continuous-time setting which is rarely considered in Economics.
In 2017, I joined international, inter-disciplinary project CASCADE (Calibrated Agent Simulations for Combined Analysis of Drinking Etiologies) to further pursue my research interest in strategic modelling and simulation of human-centred complex systems. CASCADE, funded by the US National Institutes of Health (NIH), aims to develop agent-based models and systems-based models of the UK and US populations for the sequential and linked purposes of testing theories of alcohol use behaviors, predicting population alcohol use patterns, predicting population-level alcohol outcomes and evaluating the impacts of policy interventions on alcohol use patterns and harmful outcomes.
Modeling land use change from smallholder agricultural intensification
Agricultural expansion in the rural tropics brings much needed economic and social development in developing countries. On the other hand, agricultural development can result in the clearing of biologically-diverse and carbon-rich forests. To achieve both development and conservation objectives, many government policies and initiatives support agricultural intensification, especially in smallholdings, as a way to increase crop production without expanding farmlands. However, little is understood regarding how different smallholders might respond to such investments for yield intensification. It is also unclear what factors might influence a smallholder’s land-use decision making process. In this proposed research, I will use a bottom-up approach to evaluate whether investments in yield intensification for smallholder farmers would really translate to sustainable land use in Indonesia. I will do so by combining socioeconomic and GIS data in an agent-based model (Land-Use Dynamic Simulator multi-agent simulation model). The outputs of my research will provide decision makers with new and contextualized information to assist them in designing agricultural policies to suit varying socioeconomic, geographic and environmental contexts.
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