Postdoctoral researcher at Institute of Economics, Polish Academy of Sciences and in Macroprudential Research Division at National Bank of Poland. She graduated in Mathematics (Jagiellonian University, Poland) and in Economics (University of Alcala, Spain). In 2017 she obtained Fulbright Advanced Research Award. In the United States, she carried out research on systemic risk and complex systems. Her doctoral dissertation was about the measurement and modeling of systemic risk using simulation methods and complex systems approach (the results to be published by Palgrave Macmillan US). Previously, she gained experience on agent-based modeling while working with Juan Luis Santos on the European Commission FP 7 MOSIPS project (http://www.mosips.eu/).
Mathematics, complex systems, financial modeling, agent-based modeling, econometrics, macroprudential policies, systemic risk, cental banking
My research examines the most effective and efficient policies for renewable energy development using an approach that integrates input-output analysis, life cycle analysis, econometric, and agent-based modelling to estimate the impacts of the policies to economic, emission, extracted materials, renewable energy capacity and social acceptance.
Water scarcity generated by climate change and mismanagement, affects individual at microlevel and the society and the system at a more general level. The research focuses on irrigation system and their robustness and adaptation capacity to uncertainty. In particular it investigates the evolution of farmers interactions and the effectiveness of policies by means of dynamic game theory and incorporate the results into an Agent Based Model to explore farmers emergent behaviors and the role of an agency in defining policies. Early knowledge of individual decision makers could help the agency to design more acceptable solutions.
Agent-based modeling and simulation of public policies.
My work centers on evaluating the adaptiva capacity and proposing strategies for managing forest under climate change in both temperate and tropical areas.
The Global Resource Observatory (GRO)
The Global Resource Observatory is largest single research project being undertaken at the GSI, it investigates how the scarcity of finite resources will impact global social and political fragility in the short term. The ambitious three year project, funded by the Dawe Charitable Trust, will enable short term decision making to account for ecological and financial constraints of a finite planet.
GRO will include an open source multidimensional model able to quantify the likely short term interactions of the human economy with the carrying capacity of the planet and key scarce resources. The model will enable exploration of the complex interconnections between the resource availability and human development, and provides projections over the next 5 years.
Data and scenarios will be geographically mapped to show the current and future balance and distribution of resources across and within countries. The GRO tool will, for the first time, enable the widespread integration of the implications of depleting key resource into all levels of policy and business decision-making.
Modeling land use change from smallholder agricultural intensification
Agricultural expansion in the rural tropics brings much needed economic and social development in developing countries. On the other hand, agricultural development can result in the clearing of biologically-diverse and carbon-rich forests. To achieve both development and conservation objectives, many government policies and initiatives support agricultural intensification, especially in smallholdings, as a way to increase crop production without expanding farmlands. However, little is understood regarding how different smallholders might respond to such investments for yield intensification. It is also unclear what factors might influence a smallholder’s land-use decision making process. In this proposed research, I will use a bottom-up approach to evaluate whether investments in yield intensification for smallholder farmers would really translate to sustainable land use in Indonesia. I will do so by combining socioeconomic and GIS data in an agent-based model (Land-Use Dynamic Simulator multi-agent simulation model). The outputs of my research will provide decision makers with new and contextualized information to assist them in designing agricultural policies to suit varying socioeconomic, geographic and environmental contexts.
My interests lie in the intersection of economics, networks, and computation. I am currently studying labour dynamics as a process where people flow throughout the economy by moving from one firm to another. I study these flows by looking at detailed data about employment histories of each individual and every firm in entire economies. Using this information, I construct networks of firms in order to map the roads that people take throughout their careers. This allows to study labour markets at an unprecedented fine-grained level of detail. I employ agent-based computing methods to understand how economic shocks and policies alter labour flows, which eventually translate into unemployment and other related problems.
As publically funded science has become increasingly complex, the policy and management literature has begun to focus more attention on how science is structured and organized. My research interests reside at the nexus of science and technology policy, organizational theory, and complexity theory—I am interested in how the management and organization of S&T research influences the implementation of policies and the emergence of organizational strategies and innovation. Although my research involves the use of multiple qualitative and quantitative methods, I rely heavily on agent based modeling and system dynamics approaches in addressing my research questions.
I am currently head of the Junior Research Group POLISES which uses agent-based models to study intended and unintended effects of global policy instruments on the social-ecological resilience of smallholders. In this project, we focus on the impact of policies targeting climate risk in two common property regimes of pastoralists in Africa (Morocco and Kenya/Ethiopia).
On a conceptual level, I work in an international team of modellers, psychologists and natural scientists on adequate representations of human behaviour in agent-based models. Furthermore, I am interested in how to describe models in an appropriate and standardised manner to increase their comprehensibility and comparison.