Simulating Climate Stress and Social Instability: An Agent-Based Model of Ecosystem Degradation and Violence in Coastal Communities (1.0.0)

This model is an agent-based simulation designed to explore how climate-induced environmental degradation can contribute to the emergence of social violence in coastal communities that depend heavily on ecosystem services for their livelihoods. The model represents a coupled social–ecological system in which environmental shocks—such as sea level rise and marine ecosystem decline—affect local economic conditions, food security, and community stability.

Agents in the model represent individuals whose livelihoods depend on coastal ecosystems. Environmental degradation reduces ecosystem productivity and increases economic hardship, which can lead to the formation of grievances among agents. The model incorporates behavioral thresholds that determine how individuals respond to hardship and perceived injustice. Under certain conditions—particularly when institutional capacity and law enforcement effectiveness are limited—these grievances may escalate into violent behavior.

The simulation allows users to explore how different climate scenarios, levels of ecosystem degradation, livelihood dependence, and institutional responses influence the probability of social instability and violence. By modeling the interactions between environmental stress, socio-economic vulnerability, and governance capacity, the model provides a computational framework for examining potential pathways linking climate change and conflict in coastal social–ecological systems.

The model is designed for exploratory analysis and policy experimentation. It enables researchers and practitioners to test how alternative governance strategies, resilience-building measures, or environmental management interventions may influence the stability of vulnerable coastal communities under future climate conditions.

Release Notes

This version implements an agent-based simulation of coastal social-ecological systems under climate stress. The model represents environmental degradation processes (e.g., sea level rise and ecosystem decline), household livelihood dependence on ecosystem services, grievance formation, and the potential emergence of violence under varying levels of law enforcement capacity. The model includes configurable climate scenarios, agent behavioral thresholds, and simulation parameters allowing exploration of different socio-environmental dynamics.

Associated Publications