Why do career outcomes in organizations follow highly skewed distributions when the individual traits presumed to drive success — competence, effort, and social skill — are approximately normally distributed in the population? This agent-based model investigates the relative contributions of individual attributes versus random events (“luck”) to career outcomes in hierarchically structured organizations.

The model places 500 agents in a five-level pyramid-shaped organization over 80 six-month evaluation periods (40 simulated years). Each agent is characterized by four attributes drawn from normal distributions at initialization: competence, effort, social skill, and adaptability. In each period, agents may encounter stochastic career events (good or bad projects, supportive or poor managers, market booms or busts), which modify their performance and visibility scores. Promotion decisions are made competitively when vacancies arise at higher levels, using a weighted combination of recent performance, accumulated visibility, network position, and tenure. Social connections form and decay through a proximity-based model influenced by agents’ social skills.

The model extends the talent-versus-luck framework of Pluchino et al. (2018) in four substantive directions: (1) it embeds agents in a hierarchical organization with finite positions at each level, making promotion a zero-sum competition rather than an abstract encounter with random events; (2) it represents individual differences along four independent attribute dimensions rather than a single talent score; (3) it incorporates dynamic social network formation that mediates access to career-relevant opportunities; and (4) it implements the Peter Principle mechanism through which promoted agents must acquire competence appropriate to their new role.

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SERDUX-MARCIM simulates the propagation of a cyberattack over the computational network of an organization in the maritime sector, at the strategic level of decision-making. It is the instantiation of ABM-MARCIM, the agent-based model of the MARCIM framework for the modeling and simulation of maritime cyberdefense.

Every computational asset of the target organization – servers, endpoints, routers, gateways, vessel systems, radars – is an agent that occupies one of six states at each time step: Susceptible, Exposed, Resistant, Degraded, Unavailable or Destroyed, the initials of which give the model its name. The states Degraded, Unavailable and Destroyed are associated with the D5 cyberattack effects (disrupt, degrade, deny, destroy, deceive) as a function of the degree and the duration of the attack. Thirteen transitions between states are admissible.

Unlike a conventional agent-based model, the local update function is not an individual behavioral rule. It is a system of six ordinary differential equations with eight time-dependent transition rates – propagation, cyberattack (degraded), cyberattack (unavailable), cyberattack (destroyed), recovery, sanitation, loss of resistance, and unavailability by other causes. The values of those rates derive from the capabilities of the target organization, the capabilities of the attacker, and the degree and duration of the cyberattack, computed through a cyber risk approach aligned with the OWASP Risk Rating Methodology, the ISACA categorization of security controls and the IMO Guidelines on Maritime Cyber Risk Management.

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This entry provides an Agent-Based Model (ABM) of opinion and tolerance dynamics in artificial societies, implemented in the frame of the Concord/Partial Antagonism (C/PA) model. This version is specifically designed to investigate the impact of asymmetric influence through two leadership archetypes—Dictator and Democrat—within networked societies.
The model is highly modular, allowing the user to simulate three distinct social scenarios:
Baseline C/PA: Self-organization of a society without external influence.
Stubborn Leadership: Introduction of a “solid conviction” leader (Dictator or Democrat) who exerts constant pressure without changing their own stance.
Feedback Leadership: A democratic leader receptive to social feedback, where the leader’s opinion evolves based on interactions with the population.
Theoretical Foundations:
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This paper develops a spatial agent-based model to examine how fertility regime shifts reshape population concentration and wealth distribution in an abstract urban system. Migration decisions combine population preference, cultural homophily, expected net income, and resource endowment through a standardised softmax utility. The design is deliberately stylised: it is not calibrated to a particular country or city system, but is intended to isolate the feedbacks linking migration, fertility, urban scaling, and accumulated wealth.
The simulations reveal robust directional asymmetry. When fertility shifts from low to high, population concentration responds rapidly; when fertility shifts from high to low, concentration declines only after a detectable delay and may temporarily continue in the previous direction. Wealth adds a second layer of hysteresis: cell total-wealth concentration follows population concentration with delay, cell mean-wealth inequality and system-level wealth indicators are slower still, and phase-space trajectories form loops rather than collapsing onto a single population–wealth curve. Robustness experiments indicate that longer fertility cycles, wider mobility neighbourhoods, and smoother resource landscapes change the magnitude of delay and overshoot, but do not remove the qualitative asymmetry. The paper argues that demographic decline should be understood not as the mirror image of demographic expansion, but as a path-dependent transition mediated by fast migration-income feedbacks and slower fertility, cohort, culture, and wealth mechanisms.

STiMUS-HAI (Stigmergic–Mutualistic IMOI Model, Human-AI extension) is an agent-based model of teamwork in socio-technical systems where human and AI contributors collaborate through shared digital artefacts — wiki pages, code files, issue tickets, project cards, Scratch projects — represented as patches in a NetLogo world. It extends the human-only base model STiMUS v2.2, which established that two coordination mechanisms — stigmergy (indirect coordination through traces left in the environment) and mutualism (mutual benefit between contributors and the artefacts they tend) — can be decoupled: stigmergy decides where a contributor works, mutualism decides with what effort. STiMUS-HAI preserves this decoupling unchanged and adds two further theoretical questions: whether mixing AI agents into a human team distorts human coordination in ways that aggregate indicators hide, and whether AI’s cost to team outcomes depends on the type of work AI performs, not only on how much of it is present.

Two breeds of turtle — humans and ai-agents — follow identical target-selection, pheromone, and mutualism rules, so that any behavioural difference is attributable to team composition rather than a built-in advantage. The one designed asymmetry: AI agents never accumulate shared-mental-model and their motivation is fixed rather than adaptive. On top of this v3.0 baseline, v3.1 adds a task-type dimension to artefacts (“prediction” versus “judgment”, set via a judgment-share slider) that scales down AI edit-power specifically on judgment-requiring artefacts, and an ai-trust mechanic: humans build or lose trust in AI contributions based on the population-relative percentile rank of observed AI work quality (bottom-quartile work counts as an observed “error”), and that trust gates how much mutualistic benefit a human derives from continuing an AI’s work. Trust erodes quickly on a single error and recovers only after a streak of confirmed successes — an intentional asymmetry.

This model simulates a simple aquatic ecosystem containing fish and food. It explores how individual interactions such as movement, feeding, and reproduction shape the population dynamics of fish over time.

This model is an agent-based simulation designed to explore how climate-induced environmental degradation can contribute to the emergence of social violence in coastal communities that depend heavily on ecosystem services for their livelihoods. The model represents a coupled social–ecological system in which environmental shocks—such as sea level rise and marine ecosystem decline—affect local economic conditions, food security, and community stability.

Agents in the model represent individuals whose livelihoods depend on coastal ecosystems. Environmental degradation reduces ecosystem productivity and increases economic hardship, which can lead to the formation of grievances among agents. The model incorporates behavioral thresholds that determine how individuals respond to hardship and perceived injustice. Under certain conditions—particularly when institutional capacity and law enforcement effectiveness are limited—these grievances may escalate into violent behavior.

The simulation allows users to explore how different climate scenarios, levels of ecosystem degradation, livelihood dependence, and institutional responses influence the probability of social instability and violence. By modeling the interactions between environmental stress, socio-economic vulnerability, and governance capacity, the model provides a computational framework for examining potential pathways linking climate change and conflict in coastal social–ecological systems.

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Manipulate[
Module[{fDot, mDot, poly, roots, stableRoots, rStar, rIso,
endPointStar, endPointIso},(1. Define the System Dynamics)
fDot = phi1(f/m) - phi2(m/f);
mDot = mu1(f/m) - mu2(m/f);
(*2. Find the Equilibrium Ratio r=f/
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Subjective biases and errors systematically affect market equilibria, whether at the population level or in bilateral trading. Here, we consider the possibility that an agent engaged in bilateral trading is mistaken about her own valuation of the good she expects to trade, that has not been explicitly incorporated into the existing bilateral trade literature. Although it may sound paradoxical that a subjective private valuation is something an agent can be mistaken about, as it is up to her to fix it, we consider the case in which that agent, seller or buyer, consciously or not, given the structure of a market, a type of good, and a temporary lack of information, may arrive at an erroneous valuation. The typical context through which this possibility may arise is in relation with so-called experience goods, which are sold while all their intrinsic qualities are still unknown (such as untasted bottled fine wines). We model this “private misvaluation” phenomenon in our study. The agents may also be mistaken about how their exchange counterparties are themselves mistaken. Formally, they attribute a certain margin of error to the other agent, which can differ from the actual way that another agent misvalues the good under consideration. This can constitute the source of a second-order misvaluation. We model different attitudes and situations in which agents face unexpected signals from their counterparties and the manner and extent to which they revise their initial beliefs. We analyse and simulate numerically the consequences of first-order and second-order misvaluation on market equilibria.

The model examines cattle herd dynamics on a patchy grassland subject to two exogenous pressures: periodic raiding events that remove animals and scheduled management culling that can target males and/or females. It is intended for comparative experiments on how raiding frequency, culling schedules, vegetation dynamics, and life-history parameters interact to shape herd persistence. The model was specifically designed to test the scenario of cattle herding in the arid grasslands of southern Arizona and northern Sonora during the mission period (late 17th through late 18th centuries, CE). In this period, herds were locally managed by Spanish mission personnel and local O’odham groups. Herds were culled mostly for local consumption of meat, hides, and tallow, but the mission herds were often targets for raiding by neighboring groups. The main purpose of the model is to examine herd dynamics in a seasonally variable, arid environment where herds are subject to both intentional internal harvest (culling) and external harvest (raiding).