Computational Model Library

Simulating the Economic Impact of Boko Haram on a Cameroonian Floodplain (version 1.2.0)

The agent-based model presented here simulates demographic change and economic activity on the Logone floodplain in Cameroon at the level of individual households. Under default conditions, the model demonstrates how the changing relationship between household livelihood, family size, and wealth can explain floodplain-wide economic trends since 1980. Critical decisions about household spending are based on a rational-choice model that links income, investment, and the household head’s marriage prospects. Additionally, household members give birth, leave the household, and die in accordance with known demographic and survey data from the floodplain.

The model also simulates the economic impact of the extremist group Boko Haram on the Logone floodplain. Since 2014, Boko Haram has expanded from northeast Nigeria into the Far North region of Cameroon, threatening the security of Cameroonian and provoking a military response. While the direct threat of Boko Haram attacks remains low on the Logone floodplain, residents face new social and economic pressures related to the disruption of the northeast Nigerian economy and increased military activity in the region. This model was used to conduct in-silico experiments about the magnitude of these pressures on floodplain residents; identify which groups are most vulnerable to the current crisis; and determine whether the short-term disruption facilitated by Boko Haram could precipitate long-term changes to social and economic trends on the floodplain.

model_image.png

Release Notes

This model version was updated to represent the entire study area and to incorporate new population data from the 2005 Cameroonian census.

Download Version 1.2.0
Version Submitter First published Last modified Status
1.2.0 Nathaniel Henry Wed Jun 7 16:30:07 2017 Wed Jun 7 16:30:07 2017 Published
1.1.0 Nathaniel Henry Sat Nov 12 00:49:55 2016 Sat Nov 12 00:49:55 2016 Published
1.0.0 Nathaniel Henry Sat Oct 22 22:43:34 2016 Sat Oct 22 22:43:34 2016 Published Peer Reviewed

Discussion

This website uses cookies and Google Analytics to help us track user engagement and improve our site. If you'd like to know more information about what data we collect and why, please see our data privacy policy. If you continue to use this site, you consent to our use of cookies.