NRDCPI v17.0 — NATO-Russia Direct Conflict Probability Index (1.0.0)

This model implements a bidirectional coupling between micro-level agent decisions and macro-level system dynamics, with an additional diagnostic layer based on Stafford Beer’s Viable System Model.

Key features:
- Six types of agents (Household, Firm, Bank, Government, Foreign, Innovation)
- Continuous SDM core integrated with Runge-Kutta 4
- Robust GDELT data handling with multi-level fallback
- Kalman-smoothed composite risk index (NRDCPI)
- Scenario analysis (base, peace, war, freeze)
- Interactive visualisation dashboard

Documentation strictly follows the ODD protocol (Grimm et al., 2006, 2010, 2020). The model is released under CC-BY-4.0 and is intended for research and teaching purposes.

Release Notes

NRDCPI v17.0 — NATO-Russia Direct Conflict Probability Index

Hybrid ABM–SDM–VSM model of escalation risk between NATO and Russia

Overview

NRDCPI v17.0 is a hybrid computational model that combines three modelling paradigms:

• Agent-Based Modeling (ABM) — behavioural responses of heterogeneous agents
• System Dynamics (SDM) — continuous macro-level feedback processes
• Viable System Model (VSM) — institutional viability diagnosis and corrective signals

The model generates a composite, time-evolving index (NRDCPI) reflecting the probability of direct military conflict. It incorporates real-time or cached GDELT media signals, Kalman filtering, Bayesian updating of escalation probability, and Monte-Carlo uncertainty analysis.

Important: This model is intended for research and educational purposes only. It is not an operational early-warning or decision-support system for real-world military or political use.

Documentation

Full model documentation is provided in the ODD protocol format (Grimm et al. 2006, 2010, 2020).

• ODD_Protocol_NRDCPI_v17.0.md — complete ODD description (Markdown)
• ODD_Protocol_NRDCPI_v17.0.pdf — PDF version of the ODD protocol

Files included in this release

Requirements

• Python 3.10 or higher
• Packages listed in requirements.txt

Associated Publications