Computational Model Library

Under the Kyoto Protocol, governments agreed on and accepted CO2 reduction targets in order to counter climate change. In Europe one of the main policy instruments to meet the agreed reduction targets is CO2 emission-trading (CET), which was implemented as of January 2005. In this system, companies active in specific sectors must be in the possession of CO2 emission rights to an amount equal to their CO2 emission. In Europe, electricity generation accounts for one-third of CO2 emissions. Since the power generation sector, has been liberalized, reregulated and privatized in the last decade, around Europe autonomous companies determine the sectors’ CO2 emission. Short-term they adjust their operation, long-term they decide on (dis)investment in power generation facilities and technology selection. An agent-based model is presented to elucidate the effect of CET on the decisions of power companies in an oligopolistic market. Simulations over an extensive scenario-space show that there CET does have an impact. A long-term portfolio shift towards less-CO2 intensive power generation is observed. However, the effect of CET is relatively small and materializes late. The absolute emissions from power generation rise under most scenarios. This corresponds to the dominant character of current capacity expansion planned in the Netherlands (50%) and in Germany (68%), where companies have announced many new coal based power plants. Coal is the most CO2 intensive option available and it seems surprising that even after the introduction of CET these capacity expansion plans indicate a preference for coal. Apparently in power generation the economic effect of CO2 emission-trading is not sufficient to outweigh the economic incentives to choose for coal.

TERRoir level Organic matter Interactions and Recycling model

Myriam Grillot | Published Wed Apr 19 14:33:44 2017 | Last modified Wed Jun 17 14:13:35 2020

The TERROIR agent-based model was built for the multi-level analysis of biomass and nutrient flows within agro-sylvo-pastoral villages in West Africa. It explicitly takes into account both human organization and spatial extension of such flows.

TIMELY Model

Pia Backmann | Published Thu Sep 19 07:54:28 2019

An individual-based model to evaluate, whether time delays in plant responses to insect herbivory can be beneficial for the plant.

The Palaeo-Agulhas Plain formed an important habitat exploited by Pleistocene hunter-gatherer populations during periods of lower sea level. This productive, grassy habitat would have supported numerous large-bodied ungulates accessible to a population of skilled hunters with the right hunting technology. It also provided a potentially rich location for plant food collection, and along its shores a coastline that moved with the rise and fall of sea levels. The rich archaeological and paleontological records of Pleistocene sites along the modern Cape south coast of South Africa, which would have overlooked the Palaeo-Agulhas Plain during Pleistocene times of lower sea level, provides a paleoarchive of this extinct ecosystem. In this paper, we present a first order illustration of the “palaeoscape modeling” approach advocated by Marean et al. (2015). We use a resourcescape model created from modern studies of habitat productivity without the Palaeo-Agulhas Plain. This is equivalent to predominant Holocene conditions. We then run an agent-based model of the human foraging system to investigate several research questions. Our agent-based approach uses the theoretical framework of optimal foraging theory to model human foraging decisions designed to optimize the net caloric gains within a complex landscape of spatially and temporally variable resources. We find that during the high sea-levels of MIS 5e (+5-6 m asl) and the Holocene, the absence of the Plain left a relatively poor food base supporting a much smaller population relying heavily on edible plant resources from the current Cape flora. Despite high species diversity of plants with edible storage organs, and marine invertebrates, encounter rates with highly profitable resources were low. We demonstrate that without the Palaeo-Agulhas Plain, human populations must have been small and low density, and exploited plant, mammal, and marine resources with relatively low caloric returns. The exposure and contraction of the Palaeo-Agulhas Plain was likely the single biggest driver of behavioral change during periods of climate change through the Pleistocene and into the transition to the Holocene.

PowerGen-ABM is an optimisation model for power plant expansions from 2010 to 2025 with Indonesian electricity systems as the case study. PowerGen-ABM integrates three approaches: techno-economic analysis (TEA), linear programming (LP), and input-output analysis (IOA) and environmental analysis. TEA is based on the revenue requirement (RR) formula by UCDavis (2016), and the environmental analysis accounts for resource consumption (i.e., steel, concrete, aluminium, and energy) and carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) emissions during the construction and operational stages of power plants.

A test-bed ecological model

Bruce Edmonds | Published Sun May 4 13:22:47 2014 | Last modified Wed May 15 14:18:58 2019

This is a multi-patch meta-population ecological model. It intended as a test-bed in which to test the impact of humans with different kinds of social structure.

COOPER - Flood impacts over Cooperative Winemaking Systems

David Nortes-Martinez David Nortes Martinez | Published Thu Feb 8 18:11:17 2018 | Last modified Fri Mar 22 00:06:54 2019

The model simulates flood damages and its propagation through a cooperative, productive, farming system, characterized as a star-type network, where all elements in the system are connected one to each other through a central element.

Institutional change

Abigail Sullivan | Published Fri Oct 7 20:35:15 2016 | Last modified Sun Dec 2 04:27:11 2018

This model builds on another model in this library (“diffusion of culture”).

Feedback Loop Example: Vegetation Patch Growth

James Millington | Published Thu Dec 20 19:02:47 2012 | Last modified Sat Apr 27 20:18:32 2013

This model illustrates a positive ‘growth’ feedback loop in which the areal extent of an entity increases through time.

Replication of ECEC model: Environmental Feedback and the Evolution of Cooperation

Pierre Bommel | Published Tue Apr 5 15:09:08 2011 | Last modified Sat Apr 27 20:18:45 2013

The model, presented here, is a re-implementation of the Pepper and Smuts’ model : - Pepper, J.W. and B.B. Smuts. 2000. “The evolution of cooperation in an ecological context: an agent-based model”. Pp. 45-76 in T.A. Kohler and G.J. Gumerman, eds. Dynamics of human and primate societies: agent-based modeling of social and spatial processes. Oxford University Press, Oxford. - Pepper, J.W. and B.B. Smuts. 2002. “Assortment through Environmental Feedback”. American Naturalist, 160: 205-213 […]

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