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Agent-Based Modelling of Mpox Infection Dynamics: Simulating Disease Transmission and Control Strategies (The MSM Model) 1.0.0

An agent-based model (ABM) is presented which can simulate the spread of Mpox in an artificial population. The parameters for contact formation and dissolution are drawn from the NATSAL-3 dataset (National Survey of Sexual Attitudes and Lifestyles). The presented ABM is based on the principles of classic compartmental Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) model and complexity is further added to them to break the assumptions of homogeneous mixing and populations. This ABM focuses on the MSM population, which is considered to be at high-risk of Mpox. Users can run simulations assuming different scenarios by varying the number of superspreader events, number of imported cases and vaccination strategies. It can report the daily count of new infections for the population and different sub-groups, an estimate of time-varying reproductive number Rt and effective reproduction number Re in each scenario. Re represents average number of secondary infections caused by a single infected individual in a population where not everyone is susceptible to the disease Re is different from the basic reproductive number R0, which represents the average number of new infections caused by a single infected individual in a completely susceptible population). Rt refers to the average number of secondary infections caused by a single infected individual at a specific time during an outbreak or epidemic.

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