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Agent-Based Modelling of Mpox Infection Dynamics: Simulating Disease Transmission and Control Strategies (The Population Model) 1.0.0

This Agent-based Model (ABM) is developed to study the spread of Mpox in an aritifical society. The parameters for contact formation and dissolution are drawn from the NATSAL-3 dataset (National Survey of Sexual Attitudes and Lifestyles) . The presented ABMs are based on the principles of classic compartmental Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) model and complexity is further added to them to break the assumptions of homogeneous mixing and populations. The Population model models the entire population comprising heterosexual, homosexual and bi-sexual men and women between ages 16-74. Simulations can be run assuming different scenarios by varying the number of superspreader events, number of imported cases and vaccination strategies. Daily count of new infections is reported for the population and different sub-groups, an estimate of time-varying reproductive number Rt and effective reproduction number Re is also calculated in each scenario. Re represents average number of secondary infections caused by a single infected individual in a population where not everyone is susceptible to the disease Re is different from the basic reproductive number R0 which represents the average number of new infections caused by a single infected individual in a completely susceptible population). Rt refers to the average number of secondary infections caused by a single infected individual at a specific time during an outbreak or epidemic. In other words, it is an estimation of Re at a single specific point in time during the outbreak.

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