Modeling land use change from smallholder agricultural intensification
Agricultural expansion in the rural tropics brings much needed economic and social development in developing countries. On the other hand, agricultural development can result in the clearing of biologically-diverse and carbon-rich forests. To achieve both development and conservation objectives, many government policies and initiatives support agricultural intensification, especially in smallholdings, as a way to increase crop production without expanding farmlands. However, little is understood regarding how different smallholders might respond to such investments for yield intensification. It is also unclear what factors might influence a smallholder’s land-use decision making process. In this proposed research, I will use a bottom-up approach to evaluate whether investments in yield intensification for smallholder farmers would really translate to sustainable land use in Indonesia. I will do so by combining socioeconomic and GIS data in an agent-based model (Land-Use Dynamic Simulator multi-agent simulation model). The outputs of my research will provide decision makers with new and contextualized information to assist them in designing agricultural policies to suit varying socioeconomic, geographic and environmental contexts.
Angelos Chliaoutakis received his PhD in Electronic & Computer Engineering in 2020 at Technical University of Crete (TUC), Greece. During 2005-2020 he was a research assistant at the Intelligent Systems Laboratory of TUC, participating in several research projects associated with NLP, semantic similarity and ontology based information systems. Since 2010 he is also a research assistant at the Laboratory of Geophysical - Satellite Remote Sensing and Archaeo-environment (GeoSat ReSeArch Lab) of the Institute for Mediterranean Studies of Foundation for Research and Technology (IMS-FORTH), were he is involved in various research projects related to the full-stack development of Geographical Information Systems (GIS), web-based GIS applications and Geoinformatics in the cultural and archaeological domain. This ultimately transformed his interest and research direction towards computational archaeology, in particular, agent-based modeling and simulation, while intertwining ideas and approaches from Artificial Intelligence, Multi-agent Systems and GIS.
Research activities range between Computer Science, Information Systems and Natural Language Processing (NLP), Agent-based modeling/simulation (ABM), Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Multi-Agent Systems (MAS) and Geographical Information Science (GIScience).
The big picture question driving my research is how do complex systems of interactions among individuals / agents result in emergent properties and how do those emergent properties feedback to affect individual / agent decisions. I have explored this big picture question in a number of different contexts including the evolution of cooperation, suburban sprawl, traffic patterns, financial systems, land-use and land-change in urban systems, and most recently social media. For all of these explorations, I employ the tools of complex systems, most importantly agent-based modeling.
My current research focus is on understanding the dynamics of social media, examining how concepts like information, authority, influence and trust diffuse in these new media formats. This allows us to ask questions such as who do users trust to provide them with the information that they want? Which entities have the greatest influence on social media users? How do fads and fashions arise in social media? What happens when time is critical to the diffusion process such as an in a natural disaster? I have employed agent-based modeling, machine learning, geographic information systems, and network analysis to understand and start to answer these questions.
Kenneth D. Aiello is a postdoctoral research scholar with the Global BioSocial Complexity Initiative at ASU. Kenneth’s research contributes to cross disciplinary conversations on how historical developments in biological, social, and cultural knowledge systems are governed by processes that transform the structure, dynamics, and function of complex systems. Applying computational historical analysis and epistemology to question what scientific knowledge is and how we can analyze changes in knowledge, he uses text analysis, social network analysis, and machine learning to measure similarities and differences between the knowledge claims of individual agents and groups. His work builds on how to assess contested knowledge claims and measure the evolution of knowledge across complex systems and multiple dimensions of scale. This approach also engages in dynamic new debates about global and local structures of knowledge shaped by technological innovation within microbiology related to public policy, shrinking resources given to biomedical ideas as opposed to “translation”, and the ethics of scientific discovery. Using interdisciplinary methods for understanding historical content and context rich narratives contributes to understanding new domains and major transitions in science and provides a richer understanding of how knowledge emerges.
Dr. Kimberly G. Rogers studies the coupled human-natural processes shaping coastal environments. She obtained a B.Sc. in Geological Sciences from the University of Texas at Austin and began her graduate studies on Long Island at Stony Brook University’s School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences. Rogers completed her Ph.D. at Vanderbilt University, where she specialized in nearshore and coastal sediment transport. She was a postdoctoral scholar and research associate at the Institute for Arctic and Alpine Research at the University of Colorado Boulder. In 2014, her foundation in the physical sciences was augmented by training in Environmental Anthropology at Indiana University Bloomington through an NSF Science, Engineering, and Education for Sustainability (SEES) Fellowship.
Rogers’s research is broadly interdisciplinary and examines evolving sediment dynamics at the land-sea boundary, principally within the rapidly developing river deltas of South Asia. As deltas are some of the most densely populated coastal regions on earth, she incorporates social science methods to examine how institutions — particularly those governing land use and built infrastructure — influence the flow of water and sediment in coastal areas. She integrates quantitative and qualitative approaches in her work, such as direct measurement and geochemical fingerprinting of sediment transport phenomena, agent-based modeling, institutional and geospatial analyses, and ethnographic survey techniques. Risk holder collaboration is an integral part of her research philosophy and she is committed to co-production and capacity building in her projects. Her work has gained recognition from policy influencers such as the World Bank, USAID, and the US Embassy Bangladesh and has been featured in popular media outlets such as Slate and Environmental Health Perspectives.
Eric Kameni holds a Ph.D. in Computer Science option modeling and application from the Radboud University of Nijmegen in the Netherlands, after a Bachelor’s Degree in Computer Science in Application Development and a Diploma in Master’s degree with Thesis in Computer Science on “modeling the diffusion of trust in social networks” at the University of Yaoundé I in Cameroon. My doctoral thesis focused on developing a model-based development approach for designing ICT-based solutions to solve environmental problems (Natural Model based Design in Context (NMDC)).
The particular focus of the research is the development of a spatial and Agent-Based Model to capture the motivations underlying the decision making of the various actors towards the investments in the quality of land and institutions, or other aspects of land use change. Inductive models (GIS and statistical based) can extrapolate existing land use patterns in time but cannot include actors decisions, learning and responses to new phenomena, e.g. new crops or soil conservation techniques. Therefore, more deductive (‘theory-driven’) approaches need to be used to complement the inductive (‘data-driven’) methods for a full grip on transition processes. Agent-Based Modeling is suitable for this work, in view of the number and types of actors (farmer, sedentary and transhumant herders, gender, ethnicity, wealth, local and supra-local) involved in land use and management. NetLogo framework could be use to facilitate modeling because it portray some desirable characteristics (agent based and spatially explicit). The model develop should provide social and anthropological insights in how farmers work and learn.
(Simulation using NetLogo)
Enver Miguel Oruro, Grace V.E. Pardo, Aldo B. Lucion, Maria Elisa Calcagnotto and Marco A. P. Idiart. Maturation of pyramidal cells in anterior piriform cortex may be sufficient to explain the end of early olfactory learning in rats. Learn. Mem. 2020. 27: 20-32
Enver Oruro, BA Psych. PhD(s).
Neurocomputational and Language Processing Laboratory, Institute of Physics/ UFRGS
Neurophysiology and Neurochemistry of Neuronal Excitability and Synaptic Plasticity Laboratory, Department of Biochemistry/ UFRGS
2009 First Meeting on Complex Systems -Neuroscience and Behavior Laboratory, School of Medicine UPCH Lima
2010 Second Meeting on Complex Systems - College of Psychologists of Peru / Colegio de Psicólogos del Perú (CPsP) Lima
2012 3rd Meeting on Complex Systems – Computational Social Psychology, /Neuroscience and Behavior Laboratory, School of Medicine UPCH Lima February 2012 https://www.comses.net/events/185/
2012 4th Meeting on Complex Systems – Cognotecnology and Cognitive Science, Neuroscience and Behavior Laboratory, School of Medicine UPCH Lima July 2012 https://www.comses.net/events/212/
2014 5th Meeting on Complex Systems – Complexity Roadmap. The Imperial City of the Incas, Cusco, April. https://www.comses.net/events/312/
2015 Chair of “e-session on Neuroscience and Behavior” UNESCO UniTwin CS-DC’15
2015 Chair of “e-session on Social Psychology” UNESCO UniTwin CS-DC’15
CS-DC’15 (Complex Systems Digital Campus ’15 – World e-Conference) is organizing the e-satellites of CCS’15, the international Conference on Complex Systems. It is devoted to all scientists involved in the transdisciplinary challenges of complex systems, crossing theoretical questions with experimental observations of multi-level dynamics. CCS’15 is organized by the brand new ASU-SFI Center for Biosocial Complex Systems. Arizona State University, (USA) from Sept 28 to Oct 2, 2015, in close collaboration with the Complex Systems Society and the Santa Fe Institute. from http://cs-dc-15.org/
2018 Seminar in “Mother-Infant Attachment and Supercomputing”, NY. USA and Porto Alegre, Brazil, August 09. https://www.comses.net/events/499/
2019 Seminar in Experimental and Computational Studies on Mother-Infant Relationship October 8 and 15, 2019 ICBS, /Determine the neural pathways by which the nervous system of the neonates establish attachment with their mothers is a problem that has motivated hypothesis and experiments at several scale levels, from neurotransmission to ethological level. UFRGS, Porto Alegre, Brazil. https://www.comses.net/events/549/
2020 Seminar in Maternal Infant Relationship Studies: Neuroscience and Artificial Intelligence March 7 and 9
Goals 1. Discuss a Roadmap for mother-Infant relationship research in the framework of the UNESCO Complex System Digital Campus project. https://www.comses.net/events/570/ https://sites.google.com/view/envermiguel/seminar-in-maternal-infant-relationship-studies?read_current=1
Linea de investigacion: Estrategias de modelamiento en Psicobiologia y Psicologia Social
/ Linea estrategica 1: bases biologicas de la cognicion social desde sistemas complejos
performance of urban water service provision, high levels of inequities and inefficiency persist. In terms of water distribution and cost, these undesirable patterns have a high impact on peri-urban areas usually populated by marginalized and poor populations. The high levels of Non-Revenue Water (NRW), together with the existence of corrupt practices and mismanagement of water utilities, remain a highly controversial issue.
This situation confronts rent-seeking theory directly, explaining the performance-corruption relationship (Repetto, 1986). The presumption is that low performance in water supply service provision results from corruption because rent-seeking occurs. Hence, the implementation of performance-oriented reforms in the water supply sector, such as regulation or private sector participation, will reduce corruption, increasing the efficiency of water service provision. Nevertheless, latest evidence shows that “key elements of good political governance have a positive effect on the access to water services in developing countries. In turn, private sector participation has little influence other than increasing internal efficiency of water providers” (Krausse, 2009).
Indeed the relation between governance, corruption and performance seems to be more complex than theory wants to acknowledge. It must be reviewed further than a simple cause-effect relationship. It appears that poor management of water utilities, evidenced by high levels of NRW, justifies new investments. Such practices can be encouraged by an “opportunistic management”, whilst at the same time maintaining an influential “hydrocratic elite” in the sphere of water control.
The present research proposal aims to understand the relation between mismanagement and corruption of water control practices in water supply service provision. The research examines how this relationship affects the performance of water service provision and relates to water supply governance models at municipal peri-urban level in three African countries.
To understand the mismanagement-corruption relationship, we look at different case studies of water supply service provision in Senegal, Ghana and Kenya. Each case represents a different governance model in terms of management practices, institutional and organizational settings, and the actors in place, which affects the performance of water service provision in terms of allocative efficiency and access to water (equity). Whether regulation, decentralization and private sector participation constitute possible ways to reduce corruption is examined in the context of water sector reform.
In a second step, we propose a theoretical model based on Agent Based Modelling (ABM) (Pahl-Wostl, 2007) to reproduce complex social networks under a Socio-Ecological System (SES) framework approach. The model will allow us to test whether collaborative governance in the form of collective action in a participatory and negotiated decision-making process for water control, can reduce corruption and increase performance.
The present research benefits from the project “Transparency and Integrity in Service Delivery in Sub-Saharan Africa”. This project, carried out by Transparency International (TI) in 8 Sub-Saharan countries, aims to increase access to education, health and water by improving transparency and integrity in basic service delivery. The proposal retains focus on Senegal, Ghana and Kenya in the water sector.
Key words: water control, mismanagement, corruption, performance, collaborative governance, modelling, collective action, negotiation, participation