Modeling land use change from smallholder agricultural intensification
Agricultural expansion in the rural tropics brings much needed economic and social development in developing countries. On the other hand, agricultural development can result in the clearing of biologically-diverse and carbon-rich forests. To achieve both development and conservation objectives, many government policies and initiatives support agricultural intensification, especially in smallholdings, as a way to increase crop production without expanding farmlands. However, little is understood regarding how different smallholders might respond to such investments for yield intensification. It is also unclear what factors might influence a smallholder’s land-use decision making process. In this proposed research, I will use a bottom-up approach to evaluate whether investments in yield intensification for smallholder farmers would really translate to sustainable land use in Indonesia. I will do so by combining socioeconomic and GIS data in an agent-based model (Land-Use Dynamic Simulator multi-agent simulation model). The outputs of my research will provide decision makers with new and contextualized information to assist them in designing agricultural policies to suit varying socioeconomic, geographic and environmental contexts.
Bashar Ourabi is a principle consultant at arabianconsult of Syria where he has been chairman since 2003. He holds Bsc. Eng., A Grad. Certificate in Project engineering from the University of Central Florida; and a MS. in Public Administration from the Doha Graduate Institute in Qatar.
Bashar completed his graduate studies at Doha Institute for Graduate Studies and his undergraduate studies at the Unversity of Central Florida. His research interests lie in the area of systems modelling, ranging from theory to design to implementation. He has collaborated actively with researchers in several other disciplines of computer science, system design, and bigData Artificial Intellegence, particularly BigData Expert System and Automated decision Making.
He has served on many international posts overlooking public infrastructure design and operations, varying from public transport, urban design and operations management. These posts spanned over the the US and the Middle East including Florida, UAE and Qatar.
Bashar has served on many conferences and workshop program committees and has succesfully delivered many corporate training programs..
Web Based Decision Making and Expert Systems
Discret Event Simulation
Corporate Support Systems
Dr. Chairi Kiourt is a research associate with the ATHENA - Research and Innovation Centre in Information, Communication and Knowledge Technologies - Xanthi’s Division, multimedia department since 2014. Also, as of December 2017, heis PostDoctoral researcher with the Hellenic Open University, School of Science and Technology, and as of 2018, visiting Lecturer at the Department of Informatics Engineering, Eastern Macedonia and Thrace Institute of Technology, Greece.
In 2003, he received his BSc degree in Electrical Engineering from the Electrical Engineering Department of the Eastern Macedonia and Thrace Institute of Technology, Greece. He also received an M.Sc. in System Engineering and Management in the specialty area: A. Information and Communication Systems Management from the Democritus University of Thrace, Greece. In 2017, received his PhD in Artificial Intelligence and Software Engineering from the Hellenic Open University. He has participated in several national and European research programs and co- authored to the writing of several scientific publications in international peer-reviewed journals and conferences with judges in the fields of collective artificial intelligence, multi-agent systems, reinforcement learning agents, virtual worlds, virtual museums and gamification.
Game playing multi-agent systems, reinforcement learning, colelctive artificial intelligence, distributed computing systems, virtual worlds, gamification
I am Colombian with passion for social impact. I believe that change starts at the individual, community, local and then global level. I have set my goal in making a better experience to whatever challenges I encounter and monetary systems and governance models is what concerns me at the time.
In my path to understanding and reflecting about these issues I have found my way through “Reflexive Modeling”. Models are just limited abstractions of reality and is part of our job as researchers to dig in the stories behind our models and learn to engage in a dialogue between both worlds.
Technology empowers us to act locally, autonomously and in decentralized ways and my research objective is to, in a global context, find ways to govern, communicate and scale the impact of alternative monetary models. This with a special focus on achieving a more inclusive and community owned financial system.
As a Ph.D. fellow for the Agenda 2030 Graduate School, I expect to identify challenges and conflicting elements in the sustainability agenda, contribute with new perspectives, and create solutions for the challenges ahead
I am a computational archaeologist interested in how individuals and groups respond to both large scale processes such as climate change and local processes such as violence and wealth inequality. I am currently a PhD Candidate in the Department of Anthropology at Washington State University.
My dissertation research focuses on experimenting with paleoecological data (e.g., pollen) to assess whether or not different approaches are feasible for paleoclimatic field reconstructions. In addition, I will also use pollen data to generate vegetation (biome) reconstructions. By using tree-ring and pollen data, we can gain a better understanding of the paleoclimate and the spatial distribution of vegetation communities and how those changed over time. These data can be used to better understand changes in demography and how people responded to environmental change.
In Summer 2019, I attended the Santa Fe Institute‘s Complex Systems Summer School, where I got to work in a highly collaborative and interdisciplinary international scientific community. For one of my projects, I got to merry my love of Sci-fi with complexity and agent-based modeling. Sci-fi agent-based modeling is an anthology and we wanted to build a community of collaborators for exploring sci-fi worlds. We also have an Instagram page (@Scifiabm).
performance of urban water service provision, high levels of inequities and inefficiency persist. In terms of water distribution and cost, these undesirable patterns have a high impact on peri-urban areas usually populated by marginalized and poor populations. The high levels of Non-Revenue Water (NRW), together with the existence of corrupt practices and mismanagement of water utilities, remain a highly controversial issue.
This situation confronts rent-seeking theory directly, explaining the performance-corruption relationship (Repetto, 1986). The presumption is that low performance in water supply service provision results from corruption because rent-seeking occurs. Hence, the implementation of performance-oriented reforms in the water supply sector, such as regulation or private sector participation, will reduce corruption, increasing the efficiency of water service provision. Nevertheless, latest evidence shows that “key elements of good political governance have a positive effect on the access to water services in developing countries. In turn, private sector participation has little influence other than increasing internal efficiency of water providers” (Krausse, 2009).
Indeed the relation between governance, corruption and performance seems to be more complex than theory wants to acknowledge. It must be reviewed further than a simple cause-effect relationship. It appears that poor management of water utilities, evidenced by high levels of NRW, justifies new investments. Such practices can be encouraged by an “opportunistic management”, whilst at the same time maintaining an influential “hydrocratic elite” in the sphere of water control.
The present research proposal aims to understand the relation between mismanagement and corruption of water control practices in water supply service provision. The research examines how this relationship affects the performance of water service provision and relates to water supply governance models at municipal peri-urban level in three African countries.
To understand the mismanagement-corruption relationship, we look at different case studies of water supply service provision in Senegal, Ghana and Kenya. Each case represents a different governance model in terms of management practices, institutional and organizational settings, and the actors in place, which affects the performance of water service provision in terms of allocative efficiency and access to water (equity). Whether regulation, decentralization and private sector participation constitute possible ways to reduce corruption is examined in the context of water sector reform.
In a second step, we propose a theoretical model based on Agent Based Modelling (ABM) (Pahl-Wostl, 2007) to reproduce complex social networks under a Socio-Ecological System (SES) framework approach. The model will allow us to test whether collaborative governance in the form of collective action in a participatory and negotiated decision-making process for water control, can reduce corruption and increase performance.
The present research benefits from the project “Transparency and Integrity in Service Delivery in Sub-Saharan Africa”. This project, carried out by Transparency International (TI) in 8 Sub-Saharan countries, aims to increase access to education, health and water by improving transparency and integrity in basic service delivery. The proposal retains focus on Senegal, Ghana and Kenya in the water sector.
Key words: water control, mismanagement, corruption, performance, collaborative governance, modelling, collective action, negotiation, participation
Ifigeneia Koutiva (female) is a senior environmental engineer, holding a PhD in Civil Engineering (NTUA), a Postgrad Diploma in Water Resources and Environmental Management (Un. of Belgrade - e-learning), an MSc in Environmental Technology (Imperial College London) and an MSc in Mining and Metallurgy Engineering (NTUA). Her PhD was funded by the Greek Ministry of Education through Heracleitous II scholarship. She is currently a postdoctoral scholar of the State Scholarship Foundation (IKY) for 2020 - 2021. She has 10 years of experience in various EU funded research projects, both as a researcher and as a project manager, in the fields of socio-technical simulation, urban water modelling, modelling and assessment of alternative water technologies, artificial intelligence, social quantitative research, KPI and water indicators development and assessment and analysis of large data sets. She is very competent with programming for creating ICT tools for agent based modelling and data analysis tools and she is an experienced user of spatial analysis software and tools. She is also actively involved in the design and implementation of numerous consultation workshops and conferences. She has authored more than 20 scientific journal articles, conferences articles and research reports.
My research interests lay within the interface of social, water and modelling sciences. I have created tools that explore the effects of water demand management policies in domestic urban water demand behaviour and the effects of civil decision making in flood risk management. I am interested in agent based modelling, artificial intelligence techniques, the creation of ABM tools for civil society, Circular Economy, distributed water technologies and overall urban water management.
The goal of my research program is to improve our understanding about highly integrated natural and human processes. Within the context of Land-System Science, I seek to understand how natural and human systems interact through feedback mechanisms and affect land management choices among humans and ecosystem (e.g., carbon storage) and biophysical processes (e.g., erosion) in natural systems. One component of this program involves finding novel methods for data collection (e.g., unmanned aerial vehicles) that can be used to calibrate and validate models of natural systems at the resolution of decision makers. Another component of this program involves the design and construction of agent-based models to formalize our understanding of human decisions and their interaction with their environment in computer code. The most exciting, and remaining part, is coupling these two components together so that we may not only quantify the impact of representing their coupling, but more importantly to assess the impacts of changing climate, technology, and policy on human well-being, patterns of land use and land management, and ecological and biophysical aspects of our environment.
To achieve this overarching goal, my students and I conduct fieldwork that involves the use of state-of-the-art unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in combination with ground-based light detection and ranging (LiDAR) equipment, RTK global positioning system (GPS) receivers, weather and soil sensors, and a host of different types of manual measurements. We bring these data together to make methodological advancements and benchmark novel equipment to justify its use in the calibration and validation of models of natural and human processes. By conducting fieldwork at high spatial resolutions (e.g., parcel level) we are able to couple our representation of natural system processes at the scale at which human actors make decisions and improve our understanding about how they react to changes and affect our environment.
land use; land management; agricultural systems; ecosystem function; carbon; remote sensing; field measurements; unmanned aerial vehicle; human decision-making; erosion, hydrological, and agent-based modelling
(Cover simulation using NetLogo, January 2020)
Enver Miguel Oruro, Grace V.E. Pardo, Aldo B. Lucion, Maria Elisa Calcagnotto and Marco A. P. Idiart. Maturation of pyramidal cells in anterior piriform cortex may be sufficient to explain the end of early olfactory learning in rats. Learn. Mem. 2020. 27: 20-32 © 2020 Oruro et al.; Published by Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press
(paper using NetLogo, December 2020)
Enver Miguel Oruro, Grace V.E. Pardo, Aldo B. Lucion, Maria Elisa Calcagnotto and Marco A. P. Idiart. The maturational characteristics of the GABA input in the anterior piriform cortex may also contribute to the rapid learning of the maternal odor during the sensitive period Learn. Mem. 2020. 27: 493-502 © 2020 Oruro et al.; Published by Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press
Enver Oruro, BA Psych. PhD(s).
Neurocomputational and Language Processing Laboratory, Institute of Physics/ UFRGS
Neurophysiology and Neurochemistry of Neuronal Excitability and Synaptic Plasticity Laboratory, Department of Biochemistry/ UFRGS
2009 First Meeting on Complex Systems -Neuroscience and Behavior Laboratory, School of Medicine UPCH Lima
2010 Second Meeting on Complex Systems - College of Psychologists of Peru / Colegio de Psicólogos del Perú (CPsP) Lima
2012 3rd Meeting on Complex Systems – Computational Social Psychology, /Neuroscience and Behavior Laboratory, School of Medicine UPCH Lima February 2012 https://www.comses.net/events/185/
2012 4th Meeting on Complex Systems – Cognotecnology and Cognitive Science, Neuroscience and Behavior Laboratory, School of Medicine UPCH Lima July 2012 https://www.comses.net/events/212/
2014 5th Meeting on Complex Systems – Complexity Roadmap. The Imperial City of the Incas, Cusco, April. https://www.comses.net/events/312/
2015 Chair of “e-session on Neuroscience and Behavior” UNESCO UniTwin CS-DC’15
2015 Chair of “e-session on Social Psychology” UNESCO UniTwin CS-DC’15
CS-DC’15 (Complex Systems Digital Campus ’15 – World e-Conference) is organizing the e-satellites of CCS’15, the international Conference on Complex Systems. It is devoted to all scientists involved in the transdisciplinary challenges of complex systems, crossing theoretical questions with experimental observations of multi-level dynamics. CCS’15 is organized by the brand new ASU-SFI Center for Biosocial Complex Systems. Arizona State University, (USA) from Sept 28 to Oct 2, 2015, in close collaboration with the Complex Systems Society and the Santa Fe Institute. from http://cs-dc-15.org/
2018 Seminar in “Mother-Infant Attachment and Supercomputing”, NY. USA and Porto Alegre, Brazil, August 09. https://www.comses.net/events/499/
2019 Seminar in Experimental and Computational Studies on Mother-Infant Relationship October 8 and 15, 2019 ICBS, /Determine the neural pathways by which the nervous system of the neonates establish attachment with their mothers is a problem that has motivated hypothesis and experiments at several scale levels, from neurotransmission to ethological level. UFRGS, Porto Alegre, Brazil. https://www.comses.net/events/549/
2020 Seminar in Maternal Infant Relationship Studies: Neuroscience and Artificial Intelligence March 7 and 9
Goals 1. Discuss a Roadmap for mother-Infant relationship research in the framework of the UNESCO Complex System Digital Campus project. https://www.comses.net/events/570/ https://sites.google.com/view/envermiguel/seminar-in-maternal-infant-relationship-studies?read_current=1
Linea de investigacion: Estrategias de modelamiento en Psicobiologia y Psicologia Social
/ Linea estrategica 1: bases biologicas de la cognicion social desde sistemas complejos