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Raquel Guimarães Member since: Monday, October 21, 2019 Full Member

Ph.D., Demography, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, M.A., International and Comparative Education, Stanford University

Raquel Guimaraes is a Postdoctoral Research Scholar at IIASA with support from the Brazilian Coordination for the Improvement of Higher Education Personnel (CAPES). She is hosted by the Advanced Systems Analysis (ASA), Risk and Vulnerability (RISK), and World Population (POP) programs. Dr. Guimaraes is currently on sabbatical leave from her appointment as an Adjunct Professor in the Economics Department at the Federal University of Paraná (Brazil), where she carries out research on, as well as teaching, economic demography, development microeconomics and applied microeconometrics.

In her research at IIASA, Dr. Guimaraes aims to contribute to the extant literature and to policy-making by offering a case study from Brazil, examining whether and how individual exposure to floods did or not induce affected migration in a setting with intense urbanization, the city of Governador Valadares, in the State of Minas Gerais. To elucidate the role of vulnerability at the household-level in mediating the relationship between mobility and floods, she will rely on causal models and simulation analysis. Her study is aligned with and will have support from, the Brazilian Network for Research on Global Climate Change (Rede Clima), which is an important pillar in support of R&D activities of the Brazilian National Climate Change Plan.

Dr. Guimaraes graduated from the Federal University of Minas Gerais, Brazil, in 2007 with degrees in economics. She completed an MA degree in International Comparative Education at Stanford University (2011) and earned a doctorate in demography from the Federal University of Minas Gerais in 2014.

David Earnest Member since: Saturday, March 13, 2010 Full Member Reviewer

Ph.D. in political science (2004), M.A. in security policy studies (1994)

Two themes unite my research: a commitment to methodological creativity and innovation as expressed in my work with computational social sciences, and an interest in the political economy of “globalization,” particularly its implications for the ontological claims of international relations theory.

I have demonstrated how the methods of computational social sciences can model bargaining and social choice problems for which traditional game theory has found only indeterminate and multiple equilibria. My June 2008 article in International Studies Quarterly (“Coordination in Large Numbers,” vol. 52, no. 2) illustrates that, contrary to the expectation of collective action theory, large groups may enjoy informational advantages that allow players with incomplete information to solve difficult three-choice coordination games. I extend this analysis in my 2009 paper at the International Studies Association annual convention, in which I apply ideas from evolutionary game theory to model learning processes among players faced with coordination and commitment problems. Currently I am extending this research to include social network theory as a means of modeling explicitly the patterns of interaction in large-n (i.e. greater than two) player coordination and cooperation games. I argue in my paper at the 2009 American Political Science Association annual convention that computational social science—the synthesis of agent-based modeling, social network analysis and evolutionary game theory—empowers scholars to analyze a broad range of previously indeterminate bargaining problems. I also argue this synthesis gives researchers purchase on two of the central debates in international political economy scholarship. By modeling explicitly processes of preference formation, computational social science moves beyond the rational actor model and endogenizes the processes of learning that constructivists have identified as essential to understanding change in the international system. This focus on the micro foundations of international political economy in turn allows researchers to understand how social structural features emerge and constrain actor choices. Computational social science thus allows IPE to formalize and generalize our understandings of mutual constitution and systemic change, an observation that explains the paradoxical interest of constructivists like Ian Lustick and Matthew Hoffmann in the formal methods of computational social science. Currently I am writing a manuscript that develops these ideas and applies them to several challenges of globalization: developing institutions to manage common pool resources; reforming capital adequacy standards for banks; and understanding cascading failures in global networks.

While computational social science increasingly informs my research, I have also contributed to debates about the epistemological claims of computational social science. My chapter with James N. Rosenau in Complexity in World Politics (ed. by Neil E. Harrison, SUNY Press 2006) argues that agent-based modeling suffers from underdeveloped and hidden epistemological and ontological commitments. On a more light-hearted note, my article in PS: Political Science and Politics (“Clocks, Not Dartboards,” vol. 39, no. 3, July 2006) discusses problems with pseudo-random number generators and illustrates how they can surprise unsuspecting teachers and researchers.

Bruce Edmonds Member since: Tuesday, March 10, 2009 Full Member Reviewer

BA(Hons) Mathematics, Oxford, 1983, PhD in Philosophy of Science, Manchester 1999

I studied Mathematics at Oxford (1979-1983) then did youth work in inner city areas for the Educational Charity. After teaching in Grenada in the West Indies we came back to the UK, where the first job I could get was in a 6th form college (ages 16-18). They sent me to do post16 PCGE, which was so boring that I also started a part-time PhD. The PhD was started in 1992 and was on the meaning and definition of the idea of “complexity”, which I had been pondering for a few years. Given the growth of the field of complexity from that time, I had great fun reading almost anything in the library but I did finally finish it in 1999. Fortunately I got a job at the Centre for Policy Modelling (CfPM) in 1994 with its founder and direction, Scott Moss. We were doing agent-based social simulation then, but did not know it was called this and did not meet other such simulators for a few years. With Scott Moss we built the CfPM into one of the leading research centres in agent-based social simulation in the world. I became director of the CfPM just before Scott retired, and later became Professor of Social Simulation in 2013. For more about me see http://bruce.edmonds.name or http://cfpm.org.

All aspects of social simulation including: techniques, tools, applications, philosophy, methodology and interesting examples. Understanding complex social systems. Context-dependency and how it affects interaction and cognition. Complexity and how this impacts upon simulation modelling. Social aspects of cognition - or to put it another way - the social embedding of intelligence. Simulating how science works. Integrating qualitative evidence better into ABMs. And everything else.

Gerd Wagner Member since: Sunday, January 23, 2011 Full Member Reviewer

MSc (German Diplom) in Mathematics, PhD in Philosophy

Gerd Wagner is Professor of Internet Technology at Brandenburg University of Technology, Cottbus, Germany. After studying Mathematics, Philosophy and Informatics in Heidelberg, San Francisco and Berlin, he (1) investigated the semantics of negation in knowledge representation formalisms, (2) developed concepts and techniques for agent-oriented modeling and simulation, (3) participated in the development of a foundational ontology for conceptual modeling, the Unified Foundational Ontology (UFO), and (4) created a new Discrete Event Simulation paradigm, Object Event Modeling and Simulation (OEM&S), and a new process modeling language, the Discrete Event Process Modeling Notation (DPMN). Much of his recent work on OEM&S and DPMN is available from sim4edu.com.

Modeling and simulation of agents and other discrete systems.

Julia Kasmire Member since: Wednesday, May 09, 2012 Full Member

MSc in Evolution of Language and Cognition, BA in Linguistics

About me
Name: Dr. Julia Kasmire
Position: Post-doctoral Research Fellow
Where: UK Data Services and Cathie Marsh Institute at the University of Manchester.
Short Bio
2004 - BA in Linguistics from the University of California in Santa Cruz, including college honours, departmental honours and one year of study at the University of Barcelona.
2008 - MSc in the Evolution of Language and Cognition from the University of Edinburgh, with a thesis on the effects of various common simulated population features used when modelling language learning agents.
2015 - PhD from Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management at the Delft University of Technology under the supervision of Prof. dr. ig. Margot Wijnen, Prof. dr. ig. Gerard P.J. Dijkema, and Dr. ig. Igor Nikolic. My PhD thesis and propositions can be found online, as are my publications and PhD research projects (most of which addressed how to study transitions to sustainability in the Dutch horticultural sector from a computational social science and complex adaptive systems perspective).
Additional Resources
Many of the NetLogo models I that built or used can be found here on my CoMSES/OpenABM pages.
My ResearchGate profile and my Academia.org profile provide additional context and outputs of my work, including some data sets, analytical resources and research skills endorsements.
My LinkedIn profile contains additional insights into my education and experience as well as skills and knowledge endorsements.
I try to use Twitter to share what is happening with my research and to keep abreast of interesting discussions on complexity, chaos, artificial intelligence, evolution and some other research topics of interest.
You can find my SCOPUS profile and my ORCID profile as well.

Complex adaptive systems, sustainability, evolution, computational social science, data science, empirical computer science, industrial regeneration, artificial intelligence

Pieter Van Oel Member since: Monday, April 13, 2015

PhD

I am fascinated by unraveling water-scarcity patterns. I am an expert in Integrated Assessment Modelling and Water Footprint Assessment. The concepts and tools that I have developed and applied all aim at availing knowledge at scales relevant to decision-makers in the water sector. During my PhD at the University of Twente I evaluated how spatiotemporal patterns of water availability relate to patterns of water use for a river basin in the semi-arid Northeast of Brazil. I have used agent-based modelling and developed the downstreamness concept to analyze the emergence of basin closure. This concept is helpful to water managers for identifying priority locations for intervention inside a river basin system. As a postdoc I continued to evaluate the relation between water use and availability and further broadened my scope to a wider range of related topics.

Geertje Slingerland Member since: Friday, November 20, 2020 Full Member

I am part of the Participatory Systems initiative at the Delft University of Technology. I’m currently working on my PhD project, which concerns the role of local information and stories to empower and engage citizens in their neighbourhoods. I study and use playful and creative approaches to enable the participation of children, youngsters, and adults in my research. My research interests are in research through design, citizen engagement, empowerment, and social design.

I research the role of local information and stories to increase citizen engagement in urban environments. Through workshops with citizens (children, youngsters and adults), I identify which approaches are suitable to increase engagement through local stories and storytelling. My thesis works towards a toolkit and framework which showcases possible neighbourhoud interventions, presents design guidelines, and discusses trade-offs. The research builds on workshops and projects done in The Hague and Rotterdam.

Eric Silverman Member since: Thursday, December 20, 2012 Full Member

PhD, Computer Science, University of Leeds, BA, Psychology, Pennsylvania State University (Schreyer Honors College)

Eric is a Research Fellow in the Complexity programme at the MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Unit at the University of Glasgow, working on agent-based simulation approaches to complex public health issues. Prior to this he was a Research Lecturer/Senior Lecturer in Artificial Intelligence and Interactive Systems in the School of Computing at Teesside University. Before working at Teesside, he worked on the CLC Project at the University of Southampton, a multidisciplinary project which focuses on the application of complexity science approaches to the social science domain.

Eric received a BA with Honours in Psychology from Pennsylvania State University, and a PhD from the School of Computing at the University of Leeds. After his PhD, he worked as a JSPS Postdoctoral Research Fellow at the University of Tokyo, conducting research in computer simulation and robotics.

  • Agent-based modelling for population health
  • Modelling informal and formal social care
  • Model documentation and dissemination

Talal Alsulaiman Member since: Friday, February 27, 2015

Bachelor of Science in Systems Engineering, Master of Science in Industrial Engineering, Master of Science in Financial Engineering

In this paper, we explore the dynamic of stock prices over time by developing an agent-based market. The developed artificial market comprises of heterogeneous agents occupied with various behaviors and trading strategies. To be specific, the agents in the market may expose to overconfidence, conservatism or loss aversion biases. Additionally, they may employ fundamental, technical, adaptive (neural network) strategies or simply being arbitrary agents (zero intelligence agents). The market has property of direct interaction. The environment takes the form of network structure, namely, it takes the manifestation of scale-free network. The information will flow between the agents through the linkages that connect them. Furthermore, the tax imposed by the regulator is investigated. The model is subjected to goodness of fit to the empirical observations of the S\&P500. The fitting of the model is refined by calibrating the model parameters through heuristic approach, particularly, scatter search. Conclusively, the parameters are validated against normality, absence of correlations, volatility cluster and leverage effect using statistical tests.

Roberto Gonzalez Member since: Thursday, April 23, 2020 Full Member

Hello,

My name is Roberto and I am a graduate student at The Pennsylvania State University. I am in the “Information Sciences - Cybersecurity and Information Assurance program”, through which I discovered my interest in ABM. I am conducting my capstone research project on how to make ABM more effective in the disaster recovery planning process of IT companies. I am currently looking for interview candidates to conduct my research. If you or anyone you know have experience using ABM for disaster recovery planning in IT or tech, please reach out!

I learned about ABM through the Intelligent Agents course at Penn State, where we modeled everything from terrorist attacks to social relationships. I was immediately interested in ABM due to the potential and capabilities that it provides in so many areas. I hope to make ABM more popular in IT disaster recovery planning through my research, while learning more about ABM myself.

Cyber security
Agent-Based Modeling
Information Technology
Disaster Recovery

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