Classification tags: Rebel Group, Civil War, Discrete-Event Simulation
The potentially relevant object types are:
Events | Participating objects | Caused state changes and follow-up events |
Extortion | Rebel group and assigned enterprises | Each period the rebel group extracts a fraction of wealth from its assigned enterprises. The exact fraction can be adjusted before the simulation is started. Looting is an alternative action and differs to extortion by depleting the wealth of an enterprise completely to 0. |
Looting | Rebel group and assigned enterprises | Looting translates into the complete wealth depletion of the enterprise. The enterprise is left with 0 wealth and the fleeing action is triggered. The probability for looting is higher for the weaker party. This shall simulate the pressure the weaker rebel group experiences to collect wealth at a faster pace to grow in size in comparison to the stronger competitor(s). |
Allocating Resources | Rebel group | Each period, the rebel group pays part of its wealth to maintain the costs for each single rebel. The costs are predetermined and can be altered. If the costs exceed the accumulated wealth, then the rebel group expels a fraction of rebels to match its income level. If the rebel group extorts income in excess of its current rebel size, then it grows according to its global strength. Weaker parties grow faster than stronger rebel groups but can never exceed an absolute growth above 0.5x of its current size in one period. Once a rebel group achieves hegemony (a group size relation defined as 4:1), then the rebel group does not grow anymore and saves its wealth for future allocation. |
Fleeing | Enterprise | An enterprise which is looted in a period has an assigned probability to flee and leave the game. Once the enterprise decides to flee, the rebel group cannot extract or loot the enterprise anymore. |
Expansion | Rebel group and enterprises | At the beginning of the simulation each enterprise is assigned to one of the existing rebel groups. This shall also mimic the territory of the rebel group. Each rebel group has a predetermined expansion value which is translated into a probability to attempt an expansion. An expansion means that the rebel groups forces a reassignment of a group of enterprises. Depending on the global strength of the rebel groups, this action can trigger reporting and fighting. If the expansion is successful, then the group of enterprises at disposition is reassigned to the victorious rebel group. |
Reporting | Rebel group and assigned enterprises | In the case of an expansion attempt, the disputed enterprises can decide to report to their assigned rebel group. This action increases the probability of fighting. |
Fighting | Rebel groups | In the case of an expansion (and associated reporting), there is a probability that the rebel groups engage in fighting with each other. Once triggered, the rebel groups lose a fraction of their size. The decrease is based on the relative strength of the rebel group. The stronger rebel group inflicts higher losses on the weaker rebel group than vice versa. The exact amount is based on a probabilistic function. |
The model abstracts away from clans and households. It includes the following object types:
ON (event type) | DO (event routine) |
Demand |
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