abstract: A reduction in the production and consumption of meat and dairy across much
  of the world is critical for climate change mitigation, the alleviation of ecological
  stress, and improved health. We update an agent-based model (ABM) of historic UK
  milk consumption and apply it to scenarios of dairy reduction and adoption of plant-based
  milk (PBM) out to 2050. The updated model is comprised of a cognitive function,
  where agents perceive the physical, health and environmental characteristics of
  milk choice, which is modified by habit and social influence. We use European Social
  Survey 2018 and British Social Attitudes 2008 survey data to empirically inform
  the model. Taking a backcasting approach, we calibrate parameters against published
  UK dairy reduction targets (2030 and 2050), and test how different price relationships,
  and characterisations of environmental concern, may affect simulated milk consumption
  from 2020 to 2050. Scenarios for core targets (20% less dairy by 2030 and 35% by
  2050) largely produced plausible consumption trajectories. However, at current pricing
  of dairy and PBM, simulated consumption was mostly unable to deliver on desired
  core targets, but this improved markedly with dairy prices set to organic levels.
  The influence of changing environmental concern on milk choice resulted in higher
  levels of dairy milk reduction. When modelled as transient, intense shocks to public
  concern, consumption patterns did not fundamentally change. However, small, incremental
  but permanent changes to concern did produce structural changes to consumption patterns,
  with dairy falling below plant-based alternatives at around 2030. This study is
  the first to apply an ABM  in the context of scenarios for dairy reduction and PBM
  adoption in service to UK climate-related consumption targets. It can serve as valuable
  bottom-up, alternative, evidence on the feasibility of dietary shift targets, and
  poses policy implications for how to address impediments to behavioural change.
authors:
- email: m.fordgibson@gmail.com
  family-names: Gibson
  given-names: Matthew
cff-version: 1.2.0
identifiers:
- type: url
  value: https://www.comses.net/codebases/4909deb3-781c-4214-bbc0-9528dedf23a3/releases/1.0.0/
license: CC-BY-NC-ND-4.0
message: If you use this software, please cite it using the metadata from this file.
title: An ABM of Future Dairy and Plant-Based Milk Consumption for UK Climate Targets
type: software
url: https://www.comses.net/codebases/4909deb3-781c-4214-bbc0-9528dedf23a3/releases/1.0.0/
version: 1.0.0
